‘30 Super Bowls or 20 AFL grand finals’ – Why the World Cup is wagering’s most valuable sporting event

Football’s quadrennial showpiece is expected to drive an unprecedented surge in gambling activity, with analysts forecasting that a record $US60 billion will be wagered through regulated channels during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The estimate comes from H2 Gambling Capital, a London-based gambling data and market intelligence firm whose research is widely used by operators, regulators, investors and financial institutions to assess trends across the global wagering sector.

Founded in 2002, H2 tracks betting and gaming activity in more than 175 jurisdictions and has become one of the industry’s most frequently cited sources on market size, consumer behaviour and regulatory developments.

Its latest World Cup analysis projects regulated sportsbook turnover to reach $US60 billion during the tournament, generating approximately $US7.5 billion in gross gaming revenue for operators.

Those figures place the World Cup in a category of its own, eclipsing every other event on the international sporting calendar.

For wagering operators, the celebration of a tournament that engages a global audience is secondary to the commercial phenomenon that can attract hundreds of millions of customers across multiple continents.

While soccer is a code of football that is dwarfed in Australia by AFL and NRL followings, ASX-listed company Tabcorp says the scale of business is unlike anything else on its TAB books.

“The FIFA World Cup is the biggest sports wagering event on the planet,” TAB chief wagering officer Michael Fitzsimons told The Straight.

“For TAB, the turnover is the equivalent of 30 Super Bowls or 20 AFL grand finals.

“Or to put it differently, the six-week tournament generates about the same turnover as two full NFL seasons.”

The expanded tournament, featuring 48 nations and a record 104 matches, is expected to generate substantially more wagering activity than previous editions.

“This significantly increases the addressable betting opportunity, providing operators with a broader slate of events through which to engage audiences,” H2 analysis said.

The research group nevertheless warned against assuming that more games will automatically deliver a proportional rise in customer activity.

“The increased number of fixtures, combined with the inclusion of lower-ranked teams, may dilute engagement, especially in the early stages of the competition,” H2 said.

“Sixty per cent of the additional fixtures are in the group stage, where engagement is typically lower.”

The company also noted that many of the new countries involved are expected to generate less international interest than football’s established powers.

“The inclusion of a larger number of lower-ranked teams is also likely to reduce the average quality, interest and competitiveness of matches.”

Even so, sportsbooks view the tournament as one of the wagering industry’s most effective avenues for recruitment.

“The World Cup is seen as a major customer acquisition tool for operators,” H2 said.

According to the firm’s research, French bookmakers acquired 177,000 new unique customers during the 2022 tournament, while operators in Belgium added a further 43,000 players.

That ability to attract fresh audiences helps explain why betting brands devote enormous resources to football’s premier event.

“It’s a real opportunity for us to execute on our omnichannel offering,” Fitzsimons said.

“We’re launching TAB Live, our Live Betting product, in pubs and clubs across NSW and Victoria and a number of our retail venues are extending their hours for the biggest matches across the tournament.

“We’ve really focused on filling venues and connecting customers, be it in-venue or on the TAB App.”

The company will offer more than 300 markets on every fixture and more than 100 in-play options during matches. The growth of that market will be keenly watched by both Tabcorp’s rivals and regulators. 

The emphasis on live action reflects broader international trends, with real-time wagering now accounting for more than half of sports gambling turnover worldwide.

“Live sports betting makes up over 50 per cent of the global market and only 4 per cent of the Australian market, so we see a real opportunity during the tournament to engage customers on live betting and interact with a new live sports experience,” Fitzsimons said.

Across North America, where the competition is being staged in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, operators are hoping to use the spectacle as a catalyst for soccer’s continued emergence as a mainstream betting product.

Industry estimates suggest that American sportsbooks alone could process between $US2.8 billion and $US4.4 billion in bets during the competition, depending on how far the United States advances.

Brian Josephs, vice-president of the Americas for Sportradar, likened the challenge to managing “a couple dozen Super Bowls back-to-back-to-back-to-back over the span of six weeks”.

H2’s analysis also found that overall turnover will depend heavily on which nations survive deep into the tournament.

“Betting activity is highly sensitive to national team participation,” it said.

“A scenario in which multiple major nations reach the latter stages would be expected to drive materially higher engagement, supported by increased media attention and broader consumer interest.”

Conversely, the early elimination of key football nations could significantly reduce customer interest and betting volumes in some of the world’s largest wagering markets.

The tournament can also leave trading teams exposed when waves of patriotic money flow towards national sides.

“Australians are very patriotic, a lot of punters have taken the $501 that was on offer about the Socceroos, they’re one of our largest liabilities,” Fitzsimons said.

“More broadly though, Spain and France have been the best-backed teams and are the two the punters think can go all the way.”

Despite football’s dominance, H2 notes that the sport’s share of worldwide sportsbook revenue has decreased as gambling markets have diversified, particularly following the rapid expansion of regulated sports betting in the United States.

“Football’s share of total sports betting has declined, falling from approximately 69 per cent in 2018 to 56 per cent in 2026,” H2 said.

But the World Cup also presents an opportunity for unlicensed bookmakers to muscle in on turnover and capitalise on heightened interest.

Regulators and law enforcement agencies are preparing for a parallel surge in illegal gambling activity.

Authorities in South Korea have already announced a reward-based reporting system to identify unlawful World Cup wagering operations and offshore syndicates.

H2 estimates total football turnover across legal and illegal channels will approach $US937 billion this year, highlighting the enormous scale of the global market beyond the World Cup itself.

For the gambling industry as a whole, the 2026 tournament is shaping up to be a watershed moment that will test the scale, sophistication and reach of a modern sportsbook sector that faces challenges since the introduction of prediction markets.

Gibraltar-registered ADI Predictstreet is the official prediction market partner of the 2026 World Cup. The Abu Dhabi-based platform allows users to make predictions on match results, tournament statistics, and player performances.

But H2 says it doubts these new types of exchanges will have an impact on turnover and hence their projections from companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket have been excluded from their analysis.

“While we recognise their growing popularity in the United States, particularly across domestic sports, we do not expect these platforms to have a material impact on global football betting handle for the 2026 World Cup,” H2 said.

Nevertheless, if H2’s forecasts prove accurate, before it finishes with the final on July 19, no sporting event in history will have generated more money through legal wagering channels.