Bruised bookies expecting big betting move for Al Riffa

Battle-weary bookies, reeling from a brutal Derby day, are expecting a flood of money to come for topweight Al Riffa ahead of the Melbourne Cup, with managing owner Jamie Lovett describing the import as having the scope to be the best horse raced in the Australian Bloodstock colours.

A string of short-priced favourites saluted on Saturday, including the best-backed runners in the three Group 1 races at Flemington and in the Golden Eagle in Sydney.

Anecdotally, it was described to The Straight as the worst-ever start to a Melbourne Cup carnival for the major bookmakers, with both professional punters and more casual punters landing big returns, the latter primarily through the traditionally high-margin multis market.

The Cup is the biggest betting race of the year by a factor of four, and while Half Yours is favourite at $7.50 for Tuesday’s race, big bets are expected to flow for Al Riffa on Monday and Tuesday, including at Monday’s Call Of the Card in Melbourne.

The Joseph O’Brien-trained has already firmed from $10 to $8 since the barrier draw and there are suggestions there could be a multi-million dollar play for him at the Call Of The Card.

Australian Bloodstock paid in excess of $4 million for the son of Wootton Bassett to set him for this race and are renowned as backing in their runners, while other big punters are set to make their plays.

The Australian Bloodstock-owned Protectionist was backed into $8 when he won the Melbourne Cup in 2014, while its other winner Gold Trip started $21 in 2022, in what was a market heavily impacted by a betr promotion which saw the race favourite Deauville Legend start at $4.40.

Lovett, who is director of Australian Bloodstock along with Luke Murrell, said they believed he was the best-rated horse they had owned.      

“Looking at his scope of works, he is the best horse I’ve ever been lucky enough to be involved in,” he told The Straight.

“Obviously, the Irish St Leger is a time-honoured race. I’ve never had one good enough to run in an Irish St Leger, but to win a race like that, I guess you would show that it’s a fairly good form race into a Melbourne Cup.

“You don’t want to be arrogant, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t come out on Tuesday and really run right into the race.”

Lovett said he wouldn’t swap Al Riffa for any other runner in the race, but he wants to see strong speed.

“I just hope if they run along, which I suspect they will. I wouldn’t like last year’s Cup where they sprinted home that last bit. Carrying 59 (kilograms), you want a truly run Melbourne Cup where Mark (Zahra) can, from the half mile home, start to make his run.”

“If it’s a really slowly run race, carrying 59, if you lose momentum, then it’s all over.”

Al Riffa comes into the race more highly rated than previous Cup winners American, Dunaden, Without A Fight and Gold Trip, but with a weight not carried by a winner since Rain Lover in 1969.  

Australian Bloodstock also have Vauban and Royal Supremacy in the race as they look for their third victory.

“Vauban started favourite for two years in a row for a reason. To be fair, he’s probably never shown that here. But again, if you look at his form in Europe, he would be right in the race,” Lovett said.

“Royal Supremacy, he’s just been an amazing horse for us. He won the Metro, he didn’t break clean in the Caulfield Cup, he got beat 2.7 lengths. If he breaks clean, he probably runs the winner to a length and a half.

“He’s just got to get the first part of the race right, because he does overdo it. So if he does that, he won’t run it.”

Both horses come through the Caulfield Cup, like Half Yours, but Lovett’s holds reservations about the quality of that race, further boosting his confidence in his team’s number one seed.

“The ratings told us it was a pretty ordinary race. No disrespect. But it was,” he said.

“For me, if that’s the form race, those horses would have started $21 at The Curragh. That gives me a lot of hope that if Al Riffa turns up, he can’t not be in the finish.”