Run The Numbers – Precocity pride of place in Capitalist’s two-year-olds

As a Golden Slipper and Magic Millions winner, Capitalist’s record as a producer of elite two-year-olds should be no surprise. Aardvark’s victory in the Listed Talindert Stakes on Saturday saw him become the Newgate resident’s 12th juvenile stakes winner from just four crops.

James Harron, in whose colours Capitalist raced, has featured in the ownership of three of those stakes-winning Capitalist youngsters, Kalashnikov, Cannonball and now Aardvark.

The first two came via Harron’s usual source of the yearling sales, costing $600,000 and $975,000 respectively. The bloodstock agent has purchased 18 Capitalist yearlings over the stallions’ five sales crops to date, at an average of $493.000.

Aardvark took an unusual path into Harron’s dark green and gold colours, being purchased privately for his colts syndicate ahead of the Magic Millions 2YO In Training Sale. As a stakes winner at his second start, he looms as a promising prospect, the fourth of Harron’s juvenile colts to win a black-type race already this season.

Helped along by mare books high on quality and quantity, Capitalist has been given every chance by Newgate to match his success on the track from the breeding barn.

From his first two-year-old crop in 2020/21 came 21 two-year-old winners from 64 runners, among them Group 1 winner Captivant and three other stakes winners. He was the leading first-season sire by winners and was only just narrowly edged out by barnmate Extreme Choice for overall champion first-season honours.

From his second crop came another 16 two-year-old winners, three of them stakes winners, including Group winner Sebonack, while he had 17 juvenile winners from 47 two-year-old runners from his third crop, which included Group 2 winner Lazzago.

Among Capitalist’s current crop of 25 raced two-year-olds are six winners, with Aardvark joining last week’s Lonhro Plate winner Castanya as the sire’s most recent stakes winners.

That current two-year-old crop, which featured 171 foals, was conceived off a service fee of $44,000. His current yearlings, of which there were also 171 foals, came off a much higher service fee of $99,000 off the back of that first-season success of Captivant and co.

Capitalist’s two-year-old statistics by crop

Crop	Foals	Runners	Winners	Stakes winners
First	159	64	21	4
Second	151	63	16	3
Third	150	47	17	3
Fourth	172	25	6	2

 With five Australian two-year-old winners to date this season (he also has had one in New Zealand), he sits equal with Snitzel and Kobayashi.

And along with Snitzel, he is the only sire to have multiple juvenile stakes winners in Australia.

The comparison with Arrowfield’s Snitzel is an interesting one if you look at what that four-time champion stallion did to the same point of his career, Capitalist is tracking at a faster pace on a couple of metrics.

It’s important to acknowledge that Capitalist has had a much higher number of runners to this point of his career – 372 to 224 – but he has more winners – 243 to 158 – and more stakes winners 18-12, than Snitzel did by this point of 2013.

Focussing specifically on two-year-old results, we see to this point of their careers, that Capitalist has had 60 juvenile winners to Snitzel’s 55, and 12 stakes winners as compared to Snitzel’s seven. Again, Capitalist has the advantage of having a much greater number of two-year-old runners, 201 to 150, by the same point in their careers.

Capitalist’s raw numbers also compare well to that of Australia’s other leading two-year-old sire of the past decade, I Am Invincible. Across all ages when compared at the same point, Capitalist leads the way on ‘Vinnie’ 243 to 191 on winners, although I Am Invincible heads him 19-18 on stakes winners.

Specifically on two-year-olds, Capitalist has fewer winners to this point than Vinnie, 60 to 68, but more stakes winners, 12 to 11. He has had more juvenile runners 201 to 179 at the same stage of their breeding careers.

Snitzel and I Am Invincible are above and beyond any other Australian sires regarding two-year-old stakes success over the past decade.

Since the start of the 2014-15 season, I Am Invincible has had 39 individual stakes-winning two-year-olds, while Snitzel has 36. Next on that list is Exceed And Excel with 24.

Capitalist is 10th on that list with 12 juvenile stakes winners but is the youngest sire in that top 10 by three years!  

Snitzel has the most Australian stakes wins by his two-year-olds in that period – 44 to 43 – with a big margin back to Exceed And Excel in third on 32. On that mark, Capitalist (12) is 12th but with only four crops to count on, you would think the upside would be significant over the coming years.

Sires ranked by Australian two-year-old stakes winners since 2014/15

Sire	2YO stakes winners	2YO Stakes wins
I Am Invincible	39	43
Snitzel	36	44
Exceed and Excel	24	32
Not a Single Doubt	19	26
Fastnet Rock	15	20
Sebring	15	17
Written Tycoon	13	21
Zoustar	13	15
Spirit of Boom	13	13
Capitalist	12	12