Prediction markets hit US$50 billion monthly turnover

Prediction markets generated more than US$50 billion in trading volume during June, the first time the sector has reached that monthly milestone, according to analysis by investment bank Macquarie.

Macquarie estimated that Kalshi accounted for about US$33 billion, or roughly 65 per cent of total trading activity during the month.

The surge was driven largely by betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with daily trading volumes exceeding US$1 billion after the tournament began in mid-June.

Analysts said the key test for the sector will be whether trading activity remains elevated once the World Cup concludes, with sports markets currently providing the main source of growth.

The rapid expansion comes as prediction market operators continue to face legal and regulatory scrutiny in several US jurisdictions over whether their products should be regulated as financial derivatives or gambling.