Straight Up – What does the start of the yearling season tell us about 2025?
In this edition:
- Analysis: Clouds on the Coast as wagering uncertainty persists
- Run The Numbers – Australia’s busiest sires – Alabama Express on top
- Rowe on Monday: Tumbarumba to Tokyo, Coolmore-Falcon partnership, mare sales outlook and Magic for Payne
- ‘I think as the year goes on it’ll be seen as a great outcome for the breeders’ – Turnover down nine per cent as Magic Millions comes to an end
- Yeppoon breeders’ family affair – $170,000 Spirit Of Boom filly tops opening Magic Millions session
- Sunlight in the twilight – Champion mare’s $3.2 million daughter right at home in Japan
- Friday night lights – Heavy storms force rescheduling of Magic Millions race day
- Straight Talk Podcast – Mitsu steps in for $3.2 million filly, plus Barry Bowditch and Adrian Bott
No matter which way you try to spin it, the first yearling sale of the 2025 season, and its largest, prompted more questions than answers over a week of trade on the Gold Coast.
There is still plenty of money in the bloodstock market – $217 million was traded over the entire Magic Millions sale – with 1001 yearlings changing hands. The average across the entire sale actually rose on last year, to $217,081, the median stayed the same, while the record price for a yearling on the Gold Coast was eclipsed on two occasions.
However, that only tells part of the story. What about the horses that didn’t sell? The clearance rate dropped from 85 per cent to 79 per cent and 57 more horses were passed in than in 2024. Overall investment was down from $23 million from $240 million last year.
‘Sticky’ became the word utilised by a lot of vendors to assess a market where imperfections in any form were not tolerated. If you had a slight issue with an x-ray or a scope, you were in strife and if you had a horse to sell by a less-than-marketable stallion, it was hard to get a deal done.
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We don’t know how many horses saw breeders having to stay in to get a deal done, but in a buyers’ market, negotiations were on their terms. Anecdotally, a lot of breeders stayed in for shares knowing that selling three-quarters of a horse was better than passing it in.
None of this is surprising for anyone who has been following the market since the end of the post-pandemic boom. But it should give cause for vendors to reflect how they approach the rest of the sales season, knowing that there is a lower tolerance for horses with issues and a drop in buyers willing to take risks on horses in the lower-to-middle end.
‘I think as the year goes on it’ll be seen as a great outcome for the breeders’
Turnover down nine per cent as Magic Millions concludes
There was plenty to come out of the sale beyond the seven-figure lots and sticky clearance, as Rowe On Monday explored this week.
Among the stories was a Peltzer colt headed to Japanese buyers, Michelle Payne and Lizzie Jelfs continuing their partnership, with some help from Su-Ann Khaw and an unlikely alliance between Coolmore and Falcon Racing.
Rowe on Monday
Tumbarumba to Tokyo, Coolmore-Falcon partnership, mare sales outlook and Magic for Payne
There were also some small breeders who did do well out of the sale as well, including a Spirit Of Boom filly which rewarded a central Queensland family.
Meanwhile, this Friday night is set to play host to the final seven races of the Magic Millions race day, after Gold Coast’s inclement weather ruined Saturday’s plans.
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Mirroring a Queensland climate and a global environment of great uncertainty, the Australian wagering industry also has a few clouds surrounding it at the moment.
A few days on the Gold Coast discussing the broader racing and wagering environment with key executives yielded some insight into the current mood and what to expect in 2025.
Analysis: Clouds on the Coast
The uncertain conditions in the wagering industry point to a stormy 2025
This week’s Run The Numbers takes a step back from the sales and looks at the stats behind the 2024 stallion books in Australia. The data we have to date puts a Yulong stallion at the top of the tree, while a Golden Slipper winner was the year’s busiest first-season sire.
Want to review Magic Millions week while on the move? Check out our Straight Talk podcast from each day of the sale last week, with special interviews, insights and analysis. In our latest episode, Tim Rowe and I talked to Mitsu Nakauchida, Barry Bowditch and Adrian Bott. Listen and subscribe on You Tube, Apple, Spotify or Podbean.
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Bren O’Brien
Managing Editor and Founder
The Straight
Author
