ARF takeover tipped to increase the number of Australian stakes races

Australia is set to have more black-type races, not fewer, as a result of international intervention to end the country’s stakes race impasse.

But Racing Australia chairman Rob Rorrison, also a member of the Asian Pattern Committee, believes the composition of the country’s Pattern calendar isn’t likely to be known until the start of the new racing season.

Rorrison, speaking exclusively to The Straight in the wake of Wednesday’s announcement by the Asian Racing Federation that it would take over Australia’s national black-type schedule, made the prediction that the number of stakes races in 2026/27 could climb by as much as six per cent.

The ARF made the unprecedented, but not unexpected move to take over the upgrading and downgrading process of Australia’s black-type races on a temporary basis due to “exceptional circumstances”.

Under the auspices of Racing Australia, the industry has not had a functioning Pattern system since 2017/18, with domestic and international stakeholders becoming increasingly fed up with the issue, leading to ARF’s dramatic hands-on involvement.

Rorrison said the APC has ratings for the nation’s black-type races for the past three seasons but this year’s figures won’t be tabled until winter of 2026. 

The ratings are determined by the Australian Classifications Committee, made up of the country’s eight state and territory handicappers, with 75 per cent of the members needing to agree to a race’s rating for it to be approved.

“The states will have a fair idea of what’s happening. They’ll know what their ratings are, but the formal decision, post-discretion, of APC won’t be made until July or August next year,” Rorrison told The Straight.

Australia last season ran 623 black-type races, including 76 Group 1s, and in ARF’s letter to the federated national body in October it foreshadowed seven races that should be downgraded in what would be a first since 2012.

They were the Sydney Cup and The Metropolitan, Sydney’s autumn and spring Group 1 staying features, as well as Perth’s signature Group 1 Railway Stakes.

The Group 2 Adelaide Cup, Victoria’s Herbert Power and the WATC Derby also face downgrades as does Tasmania’s Group 3 Launceston Cup.

The ARF has also indicated that the Group 1 Victoria Derby, Queensland Derby, Australasian Oaks and Winterbottom Stakes were among 10 races that could receive warnings that they are in line to be downgraded.

Rorrison’s comments that the country is likely to have more black-type races next season could alarm some participants.

But he says as a percentage of black-type races compared to the number of metropolitan races run each season Australia rates about 13th globally.

“If you have a look at field sizes overall and prize money overall and the quality of racing overall in Australia, it wouldn’t surprise you if we ended up with 5 or 6 per cent more black type races than we’ve got today, where we’ve had no upgrades for seven years (apart from two Group 1s),” Rorrison said.

In its statement issued on Wednesday, the ARF said the Asian Pattern Committee would start its decision-making process in the hope of determining changes by the start of the 2026/27 season. 

“This course of action has been adopted in circumstances where there has not been a properly functioning black type quality control system in Australia since as far back as 2017/18,” the ARF said. 

“While the ARF has been extremely patient and provided significant assistance to try to resolve this matter, it determined that action now had to be taken.”

Racing Australia tabled ratings-based Black Type Guidelines in September last year, but Racing Victoria backed away from the plan, leaving the proposal in tatters.

Further attempts have been made, the latest at a Racing Australia board meeting on December 5, to institute a Pattern proposal that would satisfy the principal racing authorities and international bodies.

But the Rorrison-led proposal was again voted down, with Racing Victoria believed to have used its power of veto over Racing Australia to do so.

The RA chairman admitted to becoming frustrated at the protracted and ultimately unsuccessful process after being “very confident in July and August this year that we were going to get there”.

Rorrison, who was recently elected as Racing Australia chair after a near four-year leadership absence at the organisation, said he wants to establish an Australian Black Type Advisory Group that would help determine the Pattern.

One of the concerns raised by detractors of the plan is that decision makers were not compelled to follow any of that group’s recommendations.

Thoroughbred Breeders Australia president Basil Nolan said the situation was “a serious and sobering moment for Australian breeders”.

“The Asian Racing Federation stepping in did not happen overnight. It reflects the fact that Australia has not had proper, internationally compliant black-type rules or decision-making in place for some time,” Nolan said.

“Breeders need certainty. We need to know that black-type decisions are being made independently, transparently and to global standards. Right now, that confidence has been shaken.

“If Australia wants to take back control, it will need a black-type committee that is genuinely independent, has clear authority to make binding decisions, and is trusted by all parts of the industry – not an advisory group.

“Anything less than that risks repeating the same problems and leaving Australia in exactly the position we are in now.”