The NSW government is expecting a $170 million shortfall on previously projected Point Of Consumption Tax revenues over the next four years, but Queensland is expecting its betting taxes to increase over the same period.
While the two states have different Point of Consumption Tax regimes, with Queensland charging 20 per cent and NSW 15 per cent, they are both subject to broader industry trends that have seen turnover on wagering, especially racing, continue to slump.
NSW Treasury modelling has accounted for this, projecting POCT revenue to fall for the first time, to $284 million this financial year, $36 million lower than was initially budgeted.
Accordingly, it is expected to fall short on last year’s forward estimate projections by $40 million in 2025/26, $45 million in 2026/27 and $49 million in 2027/28.
That equates to $170 million less in revenue from wagering-based consumption tax across four years than was expected.
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