Racing Victoria handicapper David Hegan has flagged the possibility that this year’s Melbourne Cup field will be assembled under the most compressed spread of weights in the race’s history.
Hegan’s release of Melbourne Cup weights on Tuesday came with a likely scenario that 5.5kg will separate the 24 runners in Australia’s greatest staying test.
Amid uncertainty over the spring campaign of Without A Fight, Hegan allocated last year’s winner 58.5kg.
It is the same weight Gold Trip was asked to carry in 2023 when he was unplaced after winning with 57.5kg in 2022.
Without A Fight had 56.5kg when he completed the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double last year but the imported stayer has been sidelined since his historic win at Flemington.
A tendon injury not long after going back into training following his Cup triumph needed extensive rehabilitation and Without A Fight hasn’t appeared in public since.
And while an audacious attempt to win the Melbourne Cup for a second time without a lead-up run had been considered, co-trainer Sam Freedman says that is appearing less likely.
Via Sistina is the next highest-weighted runner with 56kg but a Melbourne Cup start hasn’t been mentioned for the imported mare who has the Cox Plate as her primary spring target.
In the absence of Without A Fight and Via Sistina, this year’s Melbourne Cup topweight will be handicapped on 55.5kg with the current favourite Vauban pencilled in for the No.1 saddlecloth.
The minimum handicap for Melbourne Cup is 50kg.
If this scenario unfolded before 2017, weights would have been increased at acceptance time to abide by an Australian rule of racing to allow for a minimum topweight of 57kg
"Under the rules I need to release the weights with a minimum topweight of 58kg,” Hegan said.
“But there's no requirement at acceptance time for there to be a (minimum) topweight. So if Without A Fight is not there, the weights won't move."
"There's no requirement at acceptance time for there to be a (minimum) topweight. So if Without A Fight is not there, the weights won't move."- David Hegen
A similar situation confronted handicappers at acceptance time for the 2021 Caulfield Cup when the eventual winner Incentivise and Homesman shared the topweight of 55.5kg.
The likelihood of a compressed handicap scale will mean some of Australia’s best jockeys are likely to be watching on unless they want to push their bodies to the limit.
While there is certain to be plenty of opportunities for natural lightweight riders to secure a Cup mount, many leading heavyweight jockeys will miss out.
Vauban had 55kg when unplaced in 2023 and Hegan was preparing to give the Irish stayer no more than 54.5kg this year.
But a Group 2 Lonsdale Cup win and a last-start placing in the Irish St Leger forced a reassessment.
“Of the overseas contingent, it was not hard to be taken by the effort of Vauban in the Irish St Leger behind an elite horse in Kyprios,” Hegan said.
“Whilst connections may have been disappointed with his defeat in last year’s Melbourne Cup, it is never wise to underestimate Willie Mullins and so a small rise in the weights to 55.5kg is a proportionate increase given his recent performances.”
The English St quinella pair of Jan Brueghel and Illinois from the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien stable have been allocated 54kg and 53kg respectively as northern hemisphere three-year-olds.
Harbour Wind, from the Irish yard of two-time Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Dermot Weld has 53kg.
Ciaron Maher’s Sydney Cup winner Circle Of Fire received 54.5kg while last Saturday’s Archer Stakes winner Point King has 50.5kg and is exempt from a ballot.
