In this week's Rowe On Monday, Arrowfield boss John Messara is bullish about the spring prospects of The Autumn Sun's progeny, what Keeneland's September Sale means for the US industry and a quandary for Yulong with luckless Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes runner Angel Capital.
The Autumn Sun shining in spring
It’s been a strong start to the new racing season for Arrowfield’s comeback sire The Autumn Sun, who returned to service this spring after spending 2024 on the sidelines due to injury.
And it promises to only get better for the champion racehorse, with his talented offspring facing a pivotal fortnight for two of his best prospects and a pair of emerging middle-distance three-year-olds displaying their wares at Flemington at the weekend.
Looking ahead, Autumn Boy will be out to avenge his luckless first-up defeat in Saturday’s Group 1 Golden Rose - the second of six “majors” won by his sire in 2018 and 2019 - while everything is on course for the unbeaten Autumn Glow to land her maiden Group 1 victory in the Epsom at Randwick a week later.
While the Group 1 features looms large, they follow on from The Autumn Sun’s third crop three-year-olds winning both the Oaks Preview and the Victoria Derby Preview over 1800m at Flemington on Sunday.
Dom Sutton’s After Summer led throughout in the fillies’ division, defeating Prowess’ sister Seychelles in a race run at a pedestrian tempo, and young Mornington trainer Rory Hunter’s belief in $15,000 colt Autumn Mystery was vindicated with his last-to-first win the Derby Preview.
“If you put speed to him, he can throw your horses with speed and if you put more staying-type mares to him, they'll stick a bit, too,” Arrowfield chair John Messara told this column.
“He's got Redoute's Choice on one side and he's got Galileo on the (dam side).
“So, you can actually regulate to some extent what you're going to get by the mare you send to him.”
The Autumn Sun, who did not serve last year due to an injury to his pelvis, has his smallest crop of yearlings coming through with just 63 foals born last year.
They were conceived prior to the emergence of first crop fillies Autumn Angel, Vibrant Sun and Coco Sun, who all won Group 1s during the autumn of 2024.
From a commercial point of view, momentum is critical for stallions in terms of procuring nominations from breeders and demand from buyers at the yearling sales.
Messara has experienced it before when shuttler Maurice stayed in Japan in 2020 due to the pandemic, but he is less concerned about The Autumn Sun’s absence affecting his progress up the sire ranks.
“I wish he hadn't missed a season, but because they train on, it should have less effect on us and the book (of mares) he's got this year is just superlative,” Messara said.
“He's got 150, 160 mares of really good quality. And I think there'll be some outstanding results from that, I'm tipping.”
Can US studmasters resist service fee creep?
The US bloodstock market is booming at unprecedented levels.
President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill has encouraged racehorse owners to invest at the yearling sales with renewed interest in the racing industry helping the Keeneland September Yearling Sale to a new turnover benchmark.
After 12 days of selling, which came to an end at the weekend, US$531.5 million (A$805.84 million) was spent and that comes on the back of record trade at Fasig-Tipton’s Saratoga Sale in August.
It prompted Keeneland president and chief executive Shannon Arvin to understandably reflect on an “incredible September sale”.
“We definitely had reasons to be optimistic going in, but the strength of the results day after day exceeded even our highest expectations,” she said.
“From start to finish, the energy on the grounds never waned. Buyers from around the world were here in force, the sales pavilion was vibrant and the sense of community and excitement was palpable. You could feel that energy.”
A letter writer in America’s Thoroughbred Daily News is a believer in trickledown economics, suggesting the flow on impact of the spending surge in Kentucky would prove to be a positive.
But Dan Liebman also made an interesting point and that is, the temptation will be there for US stallion farms to raise the service fees next year on the back of the record sales results at Keeneland over the past fortnight.
He urged breeders to “take the win and move on”.
“There would be only one thing that could burst this perfect scenario. That would be the wholesale increasing of stud fees because of the strong sale results,” Liebman wrote.
“We should always remember that while the sale ring represents a single moment's appraisal of a horse's worth, it is on the racetrack that the real value is seen and established.
“And, while the past two weeks have been about selling horses, the ultimate goal is to breed winners on the racetrack.
“Keeping stud fees level – allowing everyone to now focus on what should be a robust mare selling season – is a huge win for everyone.
“Not just breeders … but the entire Central Kentucky community.”
Australia during the pandemic-inspired bloodstock boom also saw service fees go up with supply and demand, another economic principle.
Run The Numbers reported in May that the advertised service fees for Australia’s stallion population this year has reached an all-time high, with those sires at a fee of more than $11,000 (inc GST) averaging $45,217, up 10.7 per cent year-on-year.
That is despite 88 per cent of commercial sires in Australia having their held at 2024 levels or having it cut.
Why Angel might be a Capital investment for Everest
What does Yulong do with Angel Capital?
By jockey Damian Lane’s own admission, the fact that the “pilot had a nightmare" didn’t help the Harry Angel entire in the Sir Rupert Clarke at Caulfield. He ran fourth behind Sepals in chasing an elusive maiden Group 1 win, an important one for his value as a stallion.
His trainer Chris Waller, who has had him for an aborted autumn campaign and in totality this preparation, has pressed the case for Angel Capital to be in The Everest alongside his stablemates Joliestar and Lady Shenandoah who have already secured slots.
The pedigree of Angel Capital, who Yulong paid more than $4 million for after his first-up Group 2 Autumn Stakes win in February, suggests he could get 2000m, being a half-brother to Berkeley Square and Senor Toba, winners up to 2050m and 2400m respectively.
But Angel Capital’s racing pattern, as a get-back sprinter, may just suit him and a win in The Everest (or the Champions Sprint at Flemington) would send his stud value soaring.
So, does Yulong management hold firm on their Everest runner Private Harry - another high-priced acquisition who underperformed in The Shorts first-up at Randwick on Saturday - or switch to Angel Capital.
There will be slot holders asking the question.
