Run The Numbers – A seven-figure Charm

Charm Stone‘s win in the Robert Sangster Stakes enhances what has already been a record-breaking season for seven-figure yearlings when it comes to Group 1 wins, but as Run The Numbers discovers, it was also a drought-breaker for yearling fillies in the price bracket.

Before Charm Stone’s fast-finishing victory in the Robert Sangster Stakes, it had been 2590 days – or more than seven years – since a million-dollar-plus locally bred yearling filly had won a Group 1 race in Australia.

The 2018 Golden Slipper winner Estijaab was the most recent filly to go from seven-figure Australian purchase price to elite racetrack success, while before then, you have to go right back to Samantha Miss, the $1.5 million yearling turned triple Group 1 winner, whose final top-flight success came in the 2008 VRC Oaks.

Sunday Joy was also able to complete that double. A $1 million purchase in 2001, she won the AJC Oaks two years later and would go on to produce the champion mare More Joyous.

Shower Of Roses, purchased out of Karaka for $1.45 million in 2001, was the most recent NZB seven-figure filly graduate to go on to Group 1 success, winning the 2003 Arrowfield (now the Vinery) before running second to Sunday Joy on a high-priced quinella in the Oaks.

In terms of northern hemisphere-bred fillies, Magic Wand, a €1.4 million Arqana yearling purchase, won the 2019 Mackinnon Stakes for Aidan O’Brien.

The Sangster win of Charm Stone, a $1.55 million buy from the 2022 Magic Millions sale, was a marquee success for bloodstock agent Sheamus Mills, who has purchased eight million-dollar-plus fillies in Australia over the past five years, more than any other individual buyer.

But while it was a breakthrough result for seven-figure fillies, it also built on an amazing run of success for million-dollar-plus yearling graduates this racing season.

There have now been five individual Group 1 winners this season who sold in that price range, four of them coming in the space of just over two months.

The Coolmore Stud Stakes success of Switzerland (a $1.5 million Inglis Easter graduate) in November was the first Group 1 win by a million-plus Australasian yearling graduate in 1014 days. That was since Stronger ($1.05 million/Easter) won the Centenary Sprint Cup in Hong Kong in January 2022.

Before that, it was 2020 Magic Millions sale-topper Profondo’s ($1.9 million) win in the Spring Champion Stakes in October 2021.

Given the volume of million-dollar yearlings increased significantly in the post-pandemic bloodstock boom, it would follow that so too would their success on the highest stage.

But the flow of Group 1 winners of this profile this autumn has far outpaced the trend.

Devil Night ($1.4 million – Magic Millions) won the Blue Diamond Stakes on February 24, while two weeks later Return To Conquer ($1.3 million – Magic Millions) claimed the Group 1 Sistema Stakes at Ellerslie.

Schwarz ($1.25 million from the same Magic Millions sale as Charm Stone), won the William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley on March 22.

Five is by far the most Group 1 victories by Australian million-dollar yearlings in a single season.

Of course, the million-dollar mark is arbitrary as a price point. As an example, Newmarket Handicap winner Joliestar would have been in the category above, had she fetched one more bid at auction, having sold for $950,000.

But undoubtedly the million-dollar price tag does carry an increased expectation of performance.

From 2010 until 2024, there were 333 yearlings sold in that seven-figure range across Australia and New Zealand of which 12 became Group 1 winners.

That’s a success rate of 3.6 per cent, five times higher than the overall Group 1 graduate success rate (0.73 per cent) of the three major Australasian sales since 2010.

Significantly, Charm Stone is the first of the 79 million-dollar yearlings by three-time champion sire I Am Invincible to win a Group 1 race. Four others, Bodyguard, Zarastro, Caballus and Quantico, are Group 3 winners.

I Am Invincible joins Snitzel (four), Extreme Choice and Zoustar as active Australian stallions to have had a million-dollar yearling win a Group 1 race.

Snitzel’s four Group 1 winners from 71 seven-figure yearlings, is level with his own sire Redoute’s Choice, who had 81 million-dollar yearlings.

Other stallions since 2010 to have had seven-figure Group 1 winners in Australasia are Deep Impact, Flying Spur and Fastnet Rock.

Million-dollar yearlings who became Group 1 winners by season

Season	G1 winners	Horses
2024/25	5	Charm Stone, Return To Conquer, Devil Night, Schwarz, Switzerland
2023/24	0
2022/23	0
2021/22	2	Stronger, Profondo
2020/21	0
2019/20	1	King’s Legacy
2018/19	0
2017/18	1	Estijaab
2016/17	1	Mustaqeem
2015/16	1	Wandjina
2014/15	0
2012/13	1	All Too Hard
2011/12	2	Master Of Design, Rock ‘N’ Pop

*Aus or NZ bred only

Source: Arion.co.nz