Run The Numbers – Savabeel over O’Reilly broodmares an unmatchable Waikato Stud formula for success
The combination of bloodlines through a thoroughbred pedigree is what drives so much engagement and interest in sale rings and racetracks around the world.
At its most simplistic level, it’s the combination of sire and dam, but pedigree analysis stretches back countless generations, through both sides of the family, looking for patterns that may explain past success and predict the stars of the future.
The concept of a nick, the sire and the broodmare sire, has been one of the most fundamental statistical comparisons, and in global breeding and racing there are a few that have stood the test of time.
The most successful of the 21st century has been Galileo with Danehill mares with an extraordinary 60 stakes winners, while there were 25 of his stakes-winning progeny out of Danehill Dancer mares and 22 out of mares by Darshaan.
As a broodmare sire, Galileo has 29 stakes winners by Fastnet Rock and a further 14 by Dubawi, while Danehill’s best nick came with mares by Sir Tristram with 17 black-type winners. He had another 10 by Sadler’s Wells.
More Than Ready had 16 stakes winners out of Danehill mares, while his sire Southern Halo had a legendary association with daughters of Logical, with 29 stakes winners. As a broodmare sire, More Than Ready has 32 stakes winners by Mutakddim.
The modern Australian champion sires haven’t tended to have one dominant nick as a sire. Snitzel’s top performing nick in terms of stakes winners is Encosta de Lago with seven, while I Am Invincible’s best result as a sire has also come with that stallion with nine stakes winners.
Redoute’s Choice’s best combination was also with Encosta De Lago, as well as Last Tycoon, with 10 stakes-winning progeny, while in the broodmare sire statistics, Lonhro and Pierro lead the way in combination with nine stakes winners by Redoute’s Choice mares.
Notable sire/broodmare sire nicks
Source: arion.co.nz
New Zealand does, by its smaller nature, tend to have a greater concentration of successful nicks between two sirelines. Going back to Sir Tristram, his best nick was with Sovereign Edition mares, with 17 stakes winners, while as a broodmare sire, he had the same amount, 17, by Danehill.
His champion son Zabeel had 14 stakes winners out of Danehill, while fellow Cambridge Stud resident, Tavistock, had 14 out of Zabeel mares.
But it is in the next generation that the most successful nick of modern times in Australasia has emerged.
Savabeel is an eight-time New Zealand champion sire, with 141 stakes winners. Of those winners, 22 per cent, or 31, has been out of mares by one sire, O’Reilly.
The pair were barnmates at Waikato Stud for a decade and, not for the first time, the Chittick family has yielded terrific results from combining the genetics of two of their residents. Savabeel’s second most successful nick is with Pins, who was on the same roster as him for 15 years. There have been 18 stakes winners by Savabeel out of Pins mares.
The Savabeel-O’Reilly cross is topical after the dominant win of his daughter Orchestral in the New Zealand Derby on Saturday.
She became the ninth Group 1 winner by Savabeel out of an O’Reilly mare, sourced from 221 runners. Another three of Savabeel’s Group 1 winners have O’Reilly as their maternal grandsire.
Orchestral is from a family that has had an incredible run of success from the progeny of Savabeel. There are 12 stakes-winning descendants from his third dam, Head Of The River, and four are by Savabeel.
That includes Saturday’s Blamey Stakes winner Atishu, successful twice at Group 1 level, as well as stakes winners Mazzolino and Savaglee.
Group 1 winner Aegon, by Sacred Falls, is another close relative to the Derby heroine. He carries Head Of The River in his pedigree along with Savabeel’s sire Zabeel and has O’Reilly as his grandsire.
Interestingly, Orchestral became Savabeel’s first winner of a New Zealand Derby, while the third horse in the race, Ascend The Throne, is also by Savabeel out of an O’Reilly mare. Savabeel has had 16 previous runners in the Ellerslie Classic over the years without success.
Orchestral’s trainers, Roger James and Robert Wellwood, have enjoyed considerable success with Savabeel as a sire, with nine individual winners, including Group 1 winner Concert Hall.
It was a record sixth involvement as a Derby-winning trainer from James, whose most recent winner before Saturday, Silent Achiever, carried a similar genetic cross. That filly, who won the 2012 event, was by O’Reilly out of a Zabeel mare.
Speaking of nicks, Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Guineas win of Southport Tycoon added a third Group 1 winner to the burgeoning combination of Written Tycoon out of More Than Ready mares. That’s quite a remarkable return from just 28 runners.
Verry Elleegant Stakes winner Think It Over is one of two Group 1 winners by So You Think out of Zabeel mares – The Everest winner Think About It has Zabeel as his maternal grandsire.
Tropical Squall, the only Group 1 winner by Prized Icon, is out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare. Prized Icon’s sire More Than Ready had two stakes winners from 20 runners with daughters of Fusaichi Pegasus.
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