Wodeton may be a clear favourite for the Golden Slipper, but his 63-day path from debut to Rosehill glory would be the equal fourth fastest for a Slipper winner in the past 25 years. Run The Numbers looks at how a similar formula has been followed by recent winners Shinzo and Stay Inside.
Nine weeks out from the Golden Slipper, Wodeton raced into favouritism for Australia’s richest and most prestigious two-year-old race with an impressive four-length debut victory at Rosehill on Saturday.
The Coolmore-owned and Chris Waller-trained colt, a $1.6 million yearling, had a considerable buzz about him well before James McDonald climbed aboard him on Saturday. That was enhanced when Coolmore paid $1.15 million for Wodeton’s half-brother by I Am Invincible at the recent Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale.
It took less than 66 seconds to determine that buzz was well justified, and we had a new clubhouse leader when it came to the best two-year-old in Australia.
Certainly, the bookies think so. Off the back of a Saturday two-year-old victory, he is now $5 favourite for the Golden Slipper, two years after Waller and Coolmore last combined for a winner in the rich Rosehill two-year-old race, Shinzo.
Shinzo is second on the list of horses this century who have gone from debut to Golden Slipper in the quickest time. It was just 49 days between that colt’s debut in the Canonbury Stakes on January 28, 2023 and his feature victory with Ryan Moore aboard at Rosehill on March 18 that same year.
The only horse to do it quicker has been Stratum, who debuted with a midfield finish in a Randwick two-year-old contest on February 12, 2005 and five weeks, or 35 days later, was saluting in the Slipper. The Paul Perry-trained colt had backed up from his victory in the Pago Pago Stakes the previous week. They were to prove his only two wins in an 18-start career.
Forensics stepped out for the first time at a Friday night meeting at Canterbury on February 9 2007. Ridden by Darren Beadman, she won that race by three lengths and 50 days later gave Damien Oliver his first Slipper victory.
Just seven of the past 25 Golden Slipper winners made their debuts after New Year’s Day, but it is a trend that has become more common lately.
The 63-day gap between debut and a Slipper win, something Wodeton is aiming to achieve, was a successful formula for both Stay Inside (2021) and Estijaab (2018). The average days from debut for a Slipper winner over the past seven years has been 101.2. For the previous 18 years it was 130 days.
What is worth noting on that stat is that the Golden Slipper has moved forward in terms of its scheduling. It used to be determined as being a week before Easter, but since Racing NSW and the ATC opted to fix the dates of The Championships, it has been held in the third week of March, two weeks out from the Randwick carnival beginning.
The exception to that was in 2021 when Stay Inside won after the meeting was postponed for a week by Sydney’s wet weather.
What has also changed in recent years is that the Gimcrack Stakes and Breeders’ Plate, the first two-year-old races of the Sydney season, have become a less attractive path to debut for highly credentialed two-year-olds. The establishment of rich races like the Golden Gift, staged a month later, has impacted trainers’ planning.
Just one of the past eight Golden Slipper winners, Lady Of Camelot, has run in the Gimcrack or the Breeders’. That came after Vancouver and Capitalist did the Breeders’-Slipper double in back-to-back years.
There was a run of nine Slipper winners from 2009 until 2017 who had debuted pre-Christmas, but there have been just four in the past seven editions, while all four winners from 2005 until 2008 debuted in the New Year.
Day from debut for Golden Slipper winners since 2000
Regardless of what history says, the relatively quick Slipper path from debut deems to be a model for Waller.
Wodeton is his first two-year-old winner from just six two-year-old starters this season.
Of Waller’s six Golden Slipper starters since 2020, just one, Breeders’ Plate winner Shaquero, has debuted before Christmas. Included in that list (along with Shinzo) are future Group 1 winners Switzerland (January 27), Militarize (February 1), Home Affairs (January 30) and Hungry Heart (January11).
Those four horses were all Group 1-winning three-year-olds, perhaps a sign that Waller sees the virtues of a one-campaign two-year-old approach with a view to longevity.
It is also notable that Waller has only had 10 Slipper runners (for one winner and no placings) across his decorated career.
The great opportunity for Coolmore in Wodeton winning the Golden Slipper would be, of course, in his stud value. Suddenly that $1.6 million investment would look like a very good deal indeed.
Bren O’Brien
He is from the first Australian crop of Wootton Bassett, a stallion Coolmore poached from France mid-career and who made an enormous impression with his first Coolmore conceived crop in the northern hemisphere with no less than four Group 1-winning colts.
Given that major first impression, there is a good chance his time shuttling to Australia will be limited and an heir apparent, such as a Slipper-winning first crop colt, would be welcomed onto the Coolmore roster in the coming years.
It is worth noting that just three Slipper winners since 1994 have been by first-season sires, the most recent being Stay Inside.
With three Australian winners to date this season, Wootton Bassett has more winners than any other first-season sire this season, but trails Ole Kirk, the sire of Magic Millions 2YO Classic winner O’ Ole when it comes to progeny earnings.
