Run The Numbers – Who is Australasia’s best young stallion?

There is an old saying when it comes to making or breaking a stallion: it only takes one.

Certainly, a star horse in your first two of three crops is greatly helpful to a stallion’s ongoing commercial prospects. It can even be enough to convince an international stud to bring a stallion back to Australia.

Ghaiyyath has had more than one good horse in his first two Australian crops. Four stakes winners from 41 runners to date is a terrific return, but his one star, the Victoria Derby and now Australian Guineas winner Observer, has done most of the heavy lifting.

The Ciaron Maher-trained colt has done enough, seemingly, to convince Darley to send his sire back to Australia this year, having given him a break after four seasons travelling to Northwood Park in Victoria.

The “fifth-season break” strategy is a common one among shuttlers, with that corresponding with a first crop entering its three-year-old year. Ghaiyyath’s previous books in Australia declined from 103 to 98 to 97 to 79, all at a service fee of $27,500.

Thanks to Observer’s heroics, and stakes wins from Yum, Different Gravy and Freedom Flame, he is likely to stand at many multiples of that should he return in the spring.

His 2026 yearling averages reflect this. After averaging $74,242 and $68,481 in his first two yearling crops, this year, his third crop has averaged $205,527.

It’s been a quick arc of success for the son of Dubawi, who at this time last year, had yet to mark his first Australian winner. That didn’t come until May 27 last year when Crocodile broke his maiden at Hawkesbury.

He had just two juvenile winners in his first crop and has yet to have one in his second. However, he has had 14 three-year-old winners and currently stands as Australia’s leading second-season sire, slightly ahead of Kia Ora’s Farnan.

He is one of three second-season sires with Group 1 winners this season, the other two being Bivouac and Ole Kirk.

Bivouac, whose best horse in the Golden Rose winner Beiwacht, also has four stakes winners, albeit from a larger sample size of 85 runners. He does have the added value of four two-year-old stakes winners.

The market is yet to be completely convinced. His yearling averaged $111,986 in 2024, $105,360 in 2025 and $108,938 in 2026.

Ole Kirk made an excellent start to his stallion career and was crowned champion first-season sire in Australia in 2024/25. This season, he celebrated his first Group 1 winner thanks to Ole Dancer, and he now has five stakes winners in all, from a total of 79 runners.

The yearling market has become increasingly enamoured with Ole Kirk’s progeny, with his averages growing from $137,655 in 2024 to $165,903 in 2025 to $181,525 so far this year.

Of those second-season sires, his progeny also has the highest stakes earnings over the past two seasons ($6.28 million), clear of Farnan ($6.24m). The late Wootton Bassett has $6m (Australian progeny only).   

Farnan has four stakes winners from 97 runners, while Wootton Bassett has three (SH) from 97 runners.  Farnan’s yearlings have averaged $141,361 so far in 2026, while Wootton Bassett leads all stallions from that crop with a sales average of $249,877.

They are the top five candidates for best young stallions in that crop, which went to stud in 2021.

There is, of course, a strong crop of stallions that went to stud in 2020.

The reported $70 million purchase of Super Seth by Coolmore from Waikato Stud highlighted just how valuable emerging talent is regarded.

Super Seth has eight stakes winners, including four Group 1 winners, from 129 runners. His progeny have earned $12.6 million across three seasons.

The son of Dundeel’s average sales price of 2026 to date is $145,312.

Darley’s Too Darn Hot has been the pacesetter for that generation from the very start. His Australian-bred progeny features 14 stakes winners from 154 runners and have earned $21.9 million.  Among them are elite winners Broadsiding and Tropicus.

So far in 2026, his average yearling price for his Australian-conceived progeny is $282,740.

The potential for Alabama Express to be a future champion Australian stallion, such is the nature of the quality of his mare books, has been discussed in this column before.    

His record stands at five stakes winners from 122 runners, among them a champion filly in Treasurethe Moment. His progeny have won $13.4 million, while the 2026 yearling crop has averaged $188,514.

Arrowfield’s Castelvecchio is the other one worth throwing into the mix. He has six stakes winners, including Group 1 winners Aeliana and El Castello, from 109 runners. His progeny have earned $9.8 million.

In terms of average yearling price, that has surged to a career-high $135,421 in 2026, almost three times what it was two years ago. Sentiment is certainly on the rise.

We have left aside the current first-season stallion in this discussion, given we have seen only 8.5 per cent of that cohort’s foals hit the track yet.           

Key statistics for selected emerging stallions (SH-conceived only)

(Source: Arion.co.nz)