‘There is nothing bigger than a US election’ – Political betting blockbuster tipped to break records
On a global scale, there has never been a wagering event like it, as the 2024 US election goes down to the wire.
As the race between the Republicans’ Donald Trump and the Democrats’ Kamala Harris to see who occupies the White House looms as a 50-50 contest, it seems opinions have been matched with an unprecedented appetite for betting on US politics.
Wagering has even infiltrated the race on a campaign level for the first time, with betting odds displayed on screens during presidential rallies and Trump spouting his favouritism to his supporters.
“You see we’re up in the polls pretty substantially. They have a new thing, a new phenomena, and that’s gambling polls,” the former president said during a campaign stop in Michigan in October.
“I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means that we’re doing pretty well.”
Seven days before the election, Flutter Entainment’s betting exchange Betfair had traded $200 million on who would become the next President of the United States.
But in a market that has been running since 2020, another $150 million has been matched in the past week as Americans prepare to go to the polls in the next 24 hours.
An estimated $US1 billion was gambled on the 2020 election when Joe Biden defeated Trump but that wagering benchmark seems certain to be passed in 2024.
Unlike four years ago, betting on election outcomes is now legal in the US.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US regulator of financial contracts that bet on events, had slapped a ban on election wagering.
But a lawsuit filed by Kalshi was successful when a US district court in October sided with the financial exchange, which was founded in 2018.
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals found that the agency had failed to demonstrate how it or the public “will be irreparably harmed” by betting on the election.
Kalshi is available only to US residents and its election wagering rules prohibit candidates, their staff, pollsters and some media from making political bets.
One Australian wagering operator says US election betting will supersede the Melbourne Cup, the AFL and NRL grand finals and State of Origin for turnover.
“This will be the biggest event that we bet on this year from a fixed-odds perspective,” TAB spokesman Gerard Daffy told The Straight.
“It blitzes them all them. There is nothing bigger than a US election.
“There’s more than 2000 sports betting outlets licensed around the world now and every single one of them will have been betting on the US presidential election.”
Daffy said one TAB customer placed $100,000 on Trump at $3.25 in 2023 when the former president was facing a series of criminal cases that could have scuppered his chances of returning to the White House.
At the same time, Vice President Harris was a $16 chance but her odds obviously tumbled when she was confirmed as the Democratic nominee.
Harris momentarily overtook Trump as favourite in late September but Daffy said that had since been flipped heading into Tuesday’s (US time) polling day.
“For the first time ever, we’ve got US citizens that can legally bet on the US election so it just adds more fuel to the fire in regards to price movement and theories, etc which is generated around the world,” Daffy said.
“Whether we like it or not, we’ve all got a vested interest in who is the US president. All of us, every single one of us.
“Somebody said the other day – and it’s not the first time – ‘why would people bet on the US election’? And I said, ‘well, firstly, because you can. And secondly, everyone’s got an opinion, particularly when Donald Trump’s involved’.
“He polarises people. So, people are happy to bet against him or bet with him. We can’t affect the vote here. We can have an opinion on it and have a bet on it.”
In contrast, the TAB’s rival wagering agencies Entain and Sportsbet are bracing for a betting downturn on 2020 figures.
“It blitzes them all them. There is nothing bigger than a US election” – Gerard Daffy on the TAB’s US election hold
Sportsbet says the US election will rank as its fifth-biggest betting market in the year’s third fiscal quarter with its turnover in recent weeks skewing towards a Trump victory.
Trump traded as high as $6 in 2021 with Sportsbet while Harris was a $61 chance before she was formally announced as the Democrats’ candidate.
Sportsbet’s Jay Sellick said the election sits alongside an AFL or NRL grand final for interest.
“People right around the world have been fascinated by the US election and Australia is no different,” he said.
Entain expects its book to hold $2 million – well down on the $12 million invested in 2020.
Trump opened at $11 soon after losing the 2020 election but Entain executive Karl deKroo believes punters could be gun shy this time around.
“It’s clear interest has declined,” he said. “A major factor could be the significant losses many incurred betting on Trump last time.”
According to historical wagering data, in the 11 presidential elections since 1980, the only vote where the winning candidate was the outsider in the race was in 2016 when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.
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