The more things change, the more things stay the same, but in 2025 there could be real and meaningful change to the Australian breeding and bloodstock industries and none more so than to the Australian Pattern which was left stagnant for years before attempted but ill-conceived realignment this year.
5. Property transactions
One of Australia’s most renowned thoroughbred properties, Segenhoe Stud in the Hunter Valley, was put up for sale in mid-2024 by owner Kevin Maloney after much speculation.
Not the sentimental type, it’s about numbers (and money) for the Tulla Group founder and a deal has not been done despite some level of interest.
But the question remains as to whether a property of the standing of Segenhoe, one that’s worth tens of millions of dollars, will find a buyer in 2025, either with so-called “new money” from overseas or if an existing local investor is willing to make the jump to establish a presence in Australia’s breeding heartland.
Maloney may have already publicly tested the waters with his valuable asset, but there are other stud owners mulling the possibility of doing the same in 2025, particularly if compelling offers were forthcoming.
The trend of the smaller lifestyle equine farms being snapped up by people not interested in racing or breeding is also likely to continue next year.
4. Stallion ranks
Ageless champions Snitzel, Written Tycoon and I Am Invincible continue to hold up the Australian sires’ table, on the track and in the sales ring, and they show no signs of slowing down.
Written Tycoon’s single “Arrowfield crop”, that being the 2020-conceived foals, have excelled with four Group 1 winners and four other stakes winners to date, while Snitzel has had 11 stakes winners since the start of the season - including Coolmore Stud-winning colt Switzerland.
The Coolmore-owned colt is likely to target Royal Ascot next June in a bid to make him a dual hemisphere reverse shuttling stallion prospect while Written Tycoon’s prowess is also expected to roll on in 2025.
Pride Of Dubai currently sits atop the prize money earnings table for now, courtesy of Bella Nipotina and Pride Of Jenni, but Zoustar is in hot pursuit as the Widden stallion chases his maiden general sires’ premiership.
For the second year in a row, Widden’s flag bearer sired the most winners globally in a calendar year, and a strong close to the season can see him reel in Pride Of Dubai and hold off the challenge of Written Tycoon, Snitzel and I Am Invincible.
It remains less obvious as to who the next wave of stallions to truly make their mark will be - Too Darn Hot’s absence from shuttling duties adds to the puzzle - but as suggested at this time last year, Yulong’s Alabama Express is making progress with his first crop of three-year-olds while Castelvecchio enjoyed a spring surge and more can be expected from his three-year-olds in the New Year.
It’s a small sample size but Coolmore’s Wootton Bassett already has three two-year-olds high up in betting for the Slipper, prompting trainer Michael Freedman to compare him to Danehill, and his progeny are sure to be hot property at the upcoming sales.
The question is, come April or May when Coolmore is announcing its 2025 Australian stallion roster, will Wootton Bassett be on it or will he, like Justify and Too Darn Hot, prove too valuable to shuttle to the southern hemisphere next year?
Breeders are waiting for depth to be added to the proven stallion category and 2025 could be the year when those sires emerge.
3. Colts syndicates
It won’t take long to gauge the appetite to reinvest by the prominent colts syndicates with the start of the Magic Millions just a fortnight away.
The high-profile and market-setting groups hold plenty of sway, particularly at the top end of the market, but there is a sense that at least some of those partnerships could cool their heels to some extent in 2025.
It’s been suggested that it is business as usual for Kia Ora following the death of its owner Ananda Krishnan in late November, but the question remains, just how active will the Hunter Valley farm be on the buying bench next year?
Any scaling back will be felt by the market because Kia Ora has been a major player in the colts market - and at the mares’ sales - in recent years.
Kia Ora either outright or in partnership bought 28 horses for a combined $11,435,000 in 2024.
The Gold Coast will prove a barometer for Kia Ora’s intentions - and that of others.
Rival stud and colts fund investor Coolmore has enjoyed a stellar period since it first launched its own syndicate in 2020 to rival the likes of James Harron’s group and Henry FIeld’s Newgate Farm-China Horse Club alliance.
It’s proven fruitful in its relatively short existence, with Coolmore landing Group 1 winners Home Affairs, Shinzo and now Switzerland, three high-profile and valuable colts.
But given the weakening yearling market in 2024 and the sheer volatility (and investment required) to make the colts' funds tick, it is understood that some parties are reducing their investment in the high-stakes segment of the market.
Aushorse Investor’s Guide 2025
- More Races worth $1 million+ than Europe & America combined
- More than 140,000 Australians involved in racehorse ownership
2. Yearling market becomes more polarised than ever
If some of the colts players tighten their belts, what about the Australasian yearling market more generally in 2025?
Leading into the Magic Millions, the first of the yearling sales each year, there is, depending on who you ask, pessimism and optimism almost in equal measure,
Vendors’ personalities have a lot to do with their outlook, but there is little doubt that buyers are becoming more discerning about what horses they are prepared to buy.
As The Straight reported at the completion of the 2024 yearling sales series, more horses were passed in (926 at 11 Australian sales) than there had been for a decade.
That compared to a historically low 623 yearlings that were passed in during the record-breaking 2022 sales series.
The disparity between the top end of the market and the bottom end widened in 2024 and that trend is likely to continue into 2025.
Analysis of this year’s yearling sales series showed that the average price of a yearling sold for $100,000 or more was $287,147, up from $280,635 in 2023, while the horses that were sold for below $100,000 averaged $38,593, down from $39,444 the previous year.
Breeders who have the “right article” will be well paid for it but those who have horses with so-called faults, be that veterinary, conformation or on pedigree, will be penalised or they will be taking them home.
How much that collective penalty will be, and how it compares to 2024, we won’t know the complete answer until June, but those buyers whose budgets aren’t wound back will get more bang for their buck.
1. The Pattern
Punters may throw their hands up in the air and wonder what all the fuss is about, but for breeders the Australian Pattern is vital to the nation’s thoroughbred industry and the standing of the country’s bloodstock on the international stage.
There was attempted reform in 2024 - mainly by one state and one man, Racing NSW and its CEO Peter V’landys - but the stiff-arming of a long-established process caused much angst amongst breeders however well intentioned it may have seemed at the time.
Some principal racing authorities (PRAs) had planned to upgrade or add black type to a swathe of races, following in the footsteps of Racing NSW which upgraded more than a dozen spring races including the internationally recognised Group 1 status of The Everest, using the Racing Australia-approved handicap ratings-based Black Type Guidelines.
Racing Victoria and Racing Queensland, among others, were forced to backflip on plans due to pressure from industry stakeholders and other than the All-Star Mile receiving Group 1 status no other changes have been made.
However, greater pressure will come on authorities next year to achieve meaningful change to Australia’s black type calendar - and that also includes downgrading or removing black type status from some races, just not adding to the bloated list.
Greater consultation will be required both domestically and internationally, with vested industry groups whose livelihoods are impacted by the highly valued black type race calendar.
It’s important that proposed changes and process, where required, are vetoed by the Asian Pattern Committee, the International Grading and Race Planning Advisory Committee and the Society of International Thoroughbred Auctioneers.
There’s a lot of acronyms involved when it comes to the black type calendar and for too long they have been ignored, but that is likely to change in 2025 as the push for long overdue reform of the Pattern finally gathers pace.