Run The Numbers – Autumn proves the time again for rising Sun

It was with a sense of nominative determinism that The Autumn Sun’s racetrack career emerged late in the autumn of 2018, and six years and two days later, with similar remarkable timing, his stallion career hit new heights on Saturday.

Vibrant Sun’s victory in the Australasian Oaks at Morphettville gave the Arrowfield resident his second Group 1 winner, but the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr-trained filly also led home a trifecta for her sire.

It was the first time a stallion had done that in an Australian Group 1 race since Zoustar in the 2018 Coolmore Stud Stakes.

That’s interesting when you consider that The Autumn Sun and Zoustar were both trained by Chris Waller, and both followed almost identical paths through the early parts of their racing careers, which occurred five years apart.

But while Zoustar would make his name as a sprinter, The Autumn Sun, with its European-influenced damside, would prove more of a Classic racehorse.      

The Redoute’s Choice colt made his debut for Chris Waller on Anzac Day 2018, with a maiden win at Randwick. Just over six weeks’ later he was a Group 1 winner, edging out Zoustar’s son Zousain in the JJ Atkins Stakes.

Four further Group 1 wins, in the Golden Rose, the Caulfield, Randwick and Rosehill Guineas, would follow.

In any other year, he would have gone onto the Queen Elizabeth, but the spectre of a farewelling superstar called Winx, who happened to be a stablemate, saw The Autumn Sun’s career concluded after nine starts and just 11 months after his autumn debut.

Expectations were understandably high for his stallion career at Arrowfield, who had bought into him ahead of his Caulfield Guineas win. Three days after his final start, his legendary champion sire, Redoute’s Choice, died, leaving a void for him to step into in the 2019 breeding season. He stood for $77,000 in that year.

In the same season, Trapeze Artist, a four-time Group 1-winning son of Snitzel, retired to Widden. A champion sprinter, his fee was put at an even more bullish $88,000.

Also in 2019, Coolmore Australia had just welcomed a second US Triple Crown winner, Justify. An unbeaten son of Scat Daddy, his fee was listed at private that first season, but was broadly understood to be $66,000.

Australian progeny record for selected stallions

 There had been first-season stallions stand for more, but rarely had there been three such highly anticipated, and valued, sires come along the same year. The trio were now destined for stallion careers to run in comparison.

The first real measuring point was the market’s opinion of their first crops, the 2022 yearling sales.

The Autumn Sun claimed bragging rights there. His first crop Australian-bred yearlings averaged $290,015, clear of Justify on $244,554 and Trapeze Artist on $173,272.

While the arrival of their first two-year-olds in the spring of 2022 were anticipated, all three had racing careers which peaked after their own two-year-old seasons.

As mentioned, The Autumn Sun didn’t debut until April, while Trapeze Artist won at Group 3 level when two and Justify wasn’t seen on the track until he was three.

As the only elite juvenile winner of the three, The Autumn Sun was expected to lead the way when it came to his two-year-olds, but this did not end up being the case.  

Instead, it was Justify, with eight Australian winners, including star filly Learning To Fly, and close to $2 million in progeny earnings, who was crowned champion first-season sire. He was the first shuttle stallion to do so since More Than Ready 19 seasons prior.

Trapeze Artist’s first crop featured nine Australian two-year-old winners, the equal second of any freshman sire that season, but there were no stars among them, yet, with no stakes winners.

The Autumn Sun did have two stakes winners in that season, but with just four winners from 26 runners, and having finished sixth on the first-season sire table, he had fallen short of broader market expectations.

A further two stakes wins emerged from his three-year-olds during the spring, but Trapeze Artist got the jump on him and Justify by producing the first Group 1 winner of the trio, when Griff won the Caulfield Guineas.

Fellow sophomores Prized Icon and Harry Angel also notched spring Group 1 wins. Grunt joined them when Veight claimed the George Ryder in March.

Justify looked destined to get a first Australian Group 1 winner when Storm Boy emerged as a clear Golden Slipper favourite, but things didn’t go that colt’s way and Justify is still waiting for his first elite winner.

Momentum has flowed The Autumn Sun’s way in the past couple of months with four stakes wins from his progeny in March and April.

2023/24 Australian season by month for The Autumn Sun

The Autumn Sun’s Group 1 moment came two weeks ago when Autumn Angel prevailed for Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman in the ATC Australian Oaks. Another Oaks triumph, indeed a clean sweep of the top three, followed at Morphettville on Saturday.

As things stand, Trapeze Artist leads the way in the battle for second-season sire honours, with more winners (36) and more prize money ($5,6 million) than his rivals. Justify is second on prize money ($5.3 million), while The Autumn Sun has closed to third on $4.6 million.

It has taken 18 months since their first crops hit the track, but the three-way battle most expected from this crop is starting to emerge.

The Autumn Sun now has 33 Australian winners for the season, 22 of them since January 1. All of them are three-year-olds.

Remarkably, he has had just eight two-year-old starters to date from his second crop, with trainers clearly deciding that they require time. He had 91 foals in that second crop, so there is considerable upside to come.

Interestingly, Justify has had just seven juvenile runners in Australia (from a crop of 84) this season, while Trapeze Artist has had 14 (from 95 foals), for just two winners.

Australian second season sires table

 * All data courtesy of Arion.co.nz