🔒 🔒 A $30 million colt is not a $30 million payday – Who already owns the Coolmore upside?

The Coolmore Stud Stakes can transform a colt’s commercial value, but that does not necessarily mean a stud is waiting to write a $30 million cheque after Saturday’s race.

The top two in the market, The Next Episode and St Gotthard, are already owned by stud-related interests, as are $16 chance Paradoxium and $20 shot Under Focus and $67 outsider The Machine Gun.

A win by any of that quintet would continue a strong recent record for colts whose stud-related ownership was secured before they won the Flemington Group 1 sprint, which has become one of Australia’s key stallion-making races over the past 20 years.  

The 2024 winner Switzerland, a brother to St Gotthard, was a $1.5 million yearling purchase for Coolmore and its partners and he franked that value with his win in the race named after the famous Irish thoroughbred operation.  

Last year’s winner, Tentyris, was a Godolphin homebred and is now a Darley resident.

Newgate and its partners bought into Ozzmosis in June of his two-year-old season, months before his 2023 victory, and Home Affairs was already racing for the Coolmore-led syndicate when he won the race in 2021.

Waller, trainer of St Gotthard, named the prize at Flemington trackwork on Tuesday. “It would mean a lot to win this race again seeing from a stallion point of view, a win in the Coolmore could be worth up to $30 million dollars,” he said.

That figure is a valuation, not a cheque.

Coolmore bought into St Gotthard as a yearling, Widden kept a share of The Next Episode when it sold him, and Yulong bought control of Paradoxium during the autumn.

Yulong also owns Under Focus, purchased for $375,000 at the 2025 Easter Yearling Sale.

For these colts, a Group 1 win at Flemington immediately raises the equity the farms already hold, not evidence of a new $30 million transaction.

Tom Magnier signed for St Gotthard at $2.7 million at the 2025 Inglis Easter sale on behalf of Coolmore and partners. The price was an Arrowfield record for the Snitzel colt, bred by Arrowfield with Cloros Bloodstock. The Switzerland connection was key to the purchase of the colt out of Ms Bad Behavior.

“He’s a strong horse like his brother, loads of quality like his brother, just one of the standouts of the sale,” Magnier said at the time.

His racing ownership list covers a dozen entries alongside Coolmore, including Wynaus, Westerberg, Chris Waller Racing, Rockingham Thoroughbreds, and Lynque.

“This is the real pinnacle for a three-year-old colt to really stand himself as a stallion and that’s what the Coolmore team (managing owners) are all about,” Waller said this week.

At Inglis Easter this year, Coolmore joined the James Harron and Tony Fung colt partnerships to buy Ms Bad Behavior’s next Snitzel colt for $2 million. St Gotthard won his first two starts, including the Group 3 Ken Russell by four lengths, then ran second in both the Run To The Rose and the Golden Rose.

James McDonald rides him on Saturday.

The Next Episode sold for $2.8 million at the 2025 Magic Millions from Widden’s draft. Antony Thompson bred him with Bill Betar and Paul Frampton, and the three breeders retained 25 per cent.

British owner Phil Cunningham leads the ownership and races the colt with Peter Trainor and a syndicate of Ciaron Maher’s clients.

“When Ciaron came to us afterwards and said, would you keep a part? We were really happy to be involved and stay involved,” Thompson said on Giddy Up with Gareth Hall this week.

Widden’s portion of the colt has not been confirmed, nor has any contract covering standing rights, but Widden has previously been reported to be in the box seat to stand the colt whether or not he wins a Group 1.

Thompson measured the swing in service fees rather than capital value.

“From a service point of view, at the moment, he’s a sort of $20,000-$25,000 stallion if he goes to stud today,” he said. “If he wins the Coolmore, you know, he can be a sort of Tentyris level or Switzerland level. You know, those horses are between $60,000 and $80,000. So yeah, that is a game changer.”

From a residual perspective, that triples his value. By old-school stallion-value measures, an $80,000 service fee would put his worth, on paper, between $30 and $36 million.

The Next Episode resumed on October 3 and won the Group 2 Danehill Stakes by half a length from Natural Fling, taking his record to four wins from six starts and his prize money to just under $1 million.

Ridgmont, Bjorn Baker and Jim Clarke bought Paradoxium from Silverdale Farm for $400,000 at the 2025 Magic Millions. He won the Group 2 Todman and then ran unplaced in the Golden Slipper, after which Yulong bought control before the Inglis Sires’.

The original owners stood to receive a substantial eight-figure kicker had Paradoxium won the Sires’, but he finished sixth, while no payment tied to the Coolmore has been disclosed.

Ridgmont was the only original shareholder to remain invested, and Paradoxium subsequently won the Group 3 Poseidon Stakes at Flemington on September 12, then ran fourth in the Roman Consul on October 10 after setting a strong tempo.

Under Focus is owned solely by Yulong, with the son of Too Darn Hot placing in two key three-year-old races, the Run To The Rose and Golden Rose.

His sire already has two Australian Group 1 winners at stud this year, Broadsiding and Tropicus.

Yulong does not have a Coolmore Stud Stakes winner on its roster, with Growing Empire having run third in the race in 2024.

Trilogy Racing has connections with a few studs, but Jason and Mel Stenning also own Blue Gum Farm in Victoria, and Libertad became their first resident to run in their colours.

The Machine Gun, a son of Stay Inside, was a $300,000 yearling buy and has won two of his three career starts. A victory would be a surprise, and a marquee moment for Trilogy; his trainer Peter Snowden won the race in 2011.

Others in the race are looking for that jackpot result which will catapult their colt onto the radar of the nation’s biggest studs.

Alibaba was bred by Yulong, but trainer Ken Keys and stable clients own the son of Alabama Express.

Stretan Ruler, a $220,000 yearling by Wild Ruler, already holds considerable value as a stallion prospect, given he is a Silver Slipper winner.

Marffiano, a son of Home Affairs who cost $480,000 as a yearling, already has breeders in his ownership, headed by Laurel Oak Bloodstock, but none with specific connections to a certain stud.

I Am Invincible colt Steel Will is a half-brother to a previous winner of this race, September Run, and is bred and owned by Sir Owen Glenn, whose Go Bloodstock have interests in a host of stallions, including those owned by the Newgate colts syndicate.  

Mbube is a Rubick colt with a strong record down the Flemington straight, with a diverse group of owners who would cash in if he was to cause an upset.

Of course, the so-called $30 million bonus is off the table if any of the three fillies or one gelding wins.

Fillies have won three of the past eight editions of the race, and one of this year’s candidates, Pembrey, is owned by Kia Ora, which stands its stallions at Vinery.

Satono Fling and Natural Fling are both well in the market, having proven themselves the measure of the boys.

Doubt Time would be the first gelding to win the race since Japonisme’s upset victory in 2015.