Eleven pathways, six live tickets: has the Melbourne Cup’s ballot-free expansion been a success?

Juja Kibo’s Moonee Valley Gold Cup win on Saturday secured the last usable golden ticket for the Melbourne Cup, with six of those winners remaining on track for the Flemington feature, four of them trained by Ciaron Maher.

Maher holds tickets with Juja Kibo, Point Of Law, Mr Monaco and Shockletz. Joseph O’Brien’s Defiantly and Grahame Begg’s Zakouma hold the other two.

The other five tickets went to horses that will not be at Flemington on November 3.

Whisky On The Hill (Roy Higgins) and Daiquiri Bay (Ebor) were not nominated, the former because of injury. Belmont Gold Cup winner Tawny Port bypassed the trip because of quarantine requirements. Caulfield Cup winner Kingswood was never nominated, and Cox Plate winner Cosmic Crusader is not on a Cup path.

The race conditions give the exemption to the winner alone, provided it is nominated and accepts at every stage. Ebor runner-up Hopewell Rock is still bound for the race, but has had to earn his spot the old-fashioned way, via the handicap.

He sits 24th on 54.5kg, the last horse provisionally inside the field.

Hopewell Rock is also the measuring stick. At 5kg below his weight-for-age benchmark, he marks the current cutoff for ballot-dependent horses.

Three of the exempt horses would be in regardless. Defiantly, on 56.5kg, is 3kg below benchmark, the same figure as Middle Earth, Goodie Two Shoes and James J Braddock, all comfortably inside. Point Of Law’s 3.5kg deficit matches Royal Supremacy and Enfjaar in the 15th-to-18th band. Juja Kibo, at 4.5kg below, sits level with Saint George and Asterix, 19th and 20th.

Three would not. Mr Monaco is 7kg below benchmark, level with Valiant King and Torranzino in 30th and 31st. Zakouma and Shockletz are both 7.5kg below, with Shockletz carrying 1kg less through the mare’s allowance. King Pedro, on that figure, is 32nd.

For those three, the ticket is the only thing guaranteeing a start.

For Point Of Law and Juja Kibo, the wins that earned tickets also added weight, and that weight alone would have lifted them inside the 24.

Point Of Law was 35th on October 5, on the 51kg minimum and 6kg below benchmark. After the Geelong Cup, Racing Victoria head of handicapping David Hegan added 2kg, calling the underlying reassessment 2.5kg against the weight-for-age scale.

“I can’t handicap Point Of Law on potential, only on what he has done to date,” Hegan said. “He may well improve off that run next time out, but only time will tell.”

Juja Kibo absorbed two penalties. His Metropolitan win, not an exemption race, cost him 2kg, from 51.5kg to 53.5kg, and lifted him from 46th to 34th. He was still 28th on October 22. The Gold Cup added another 1.5kg, taking him to 55kg.

Stablemate Kings Valley, second in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, is 36th on 51kg, and unlikely to gain a run.

Similarly, Geelong Cup placegetters Small Fry and Omni Man satisfied the first elimination clause with their second and third placings but have no guaranteed start. They are 34th and 35th.

The tickets created the most interest in the domestic handicaps, where winners needed them. Most of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup field was running for a guaranteed start.

The Group 1s offered less: before the Cox Plate, Racing Victoria noted Aeliana, Birdman, Middle Earth and Saint George were already safely inside the field.

The golden ticket winners also have the favour of the market.

In Sportsbet’s all-in win market, Point Of Law is the $6.50 favourite. Defiantly and Shockletz are both $12, Juja Kibo is $17, and Mr Monaco and Zakouma are both $34.

The three horses who would be inside the field even without their tickets are favourite, equal fourth and equal seventh in that market.

But history shows that a free pass to the race itself is not a readymade guarantee of success. While two of the past three Melbourne Cup winners have come through victories in win-and-you’re-in races, the status of the Caulfield Cup would guarantee a winner access to the Flemington race, with its bigger field, regardless.

Almandin won his way through via the Bart Cummings in 2016, but with 51kg (including a 1kg penalty after his earlier win), he would have made the final field of 24 anyway.

Of the seven editions of the Andrew Ramsden which offered free passage to the Cup, just three winners have competed, with a best result of ninth.

Meanwhile, the Roy Higgins has been ballot-free for four years without a single runner graduating to the Melbourne Cup.