Run The Numbers – A win a day as Zoustar sets record pace

Amid the high-profile successes of I Am Invincible, Justify and a host of first-season stallions, Widden Stud’s Zoustar has built a seasonal record unprecedented in Australian racing history.

Zougotcha’s victory in Saturday’s Coolmore Classic at Rosehill delivered Zoustar his third individual Group 1 winner of the Australian season, leading all stallions when it comes to individual elite winners. Dundeel is the only other sire with multiple individual Group 1-winning progeny in Australia in 2023/24.

It was another highlight in a remarkable season for the Widden resident. He is unlikely to be crowned champion Australian stallion, with I Am Invincible holding an almighty lead in that department, but he is set to outpoint the Yarraman Park champion in a couple of key areas, and in the process set Australian records.

As of Saturday night, Zoustar had 157 individual Australian winners for the season, 28 more than I Am Invincible, who has been Australia’s top winner-getter for the past five seasons.

It’s an unprecedented rate of success for any stallion to this point of an Australian season. Even in the two seasons where I Am Invincible notched more than 200 winners in a campaign – an unthinkable feat only a decade ago – he only had 142 and 148 winners respectively by March 16 of those campaigns.

Written Tycoon’s 2020/21 season was another rated elite in terms of individual winners. He finished with 193 winners, but only 141 of them had come by mid-March. Snitzel’s best mark to March 16 of a season was in 2018/19 when he had 129 winners.

As things stand, Zoustar would be odds-on to not only become just the second stallion to break the 200-winners-in-a-season mark, but also eclipse I Am Invincible’s seasonal record of 208, set in 2020/21.

To give some broader historical context, Zoustar’s 157 winners would have made him the champion stallion by winners in every season before 2015/16, apart from one, and we still have four-and-half months of 2023/24 remaining.

Most Australian winners by a sire until March 16

* Data sourced from Arion.co.nz

But there is also another benchmark that would have been near unfathomable a decade ago, which Zoustar is threatening to eclipse.

His progeny in Australia have won 231 races in 2023/24, and we are just 229 days into the season. He could, quite possibly, become the first stallion to average better than a win a day over a season.

The most Australian wins for a season also belongs to I Am invincible with 338 in 2022/23, a rate of 0.92 wins per day.

Numbers of starters have certainly helped Zoustar build these formidable figures, although with 322 individual runners to date, he has one fewer than I Am Invincible.

While the rate of Zoustar’s success this season is unprecedented, it has been far from unpredictable. He has ascended at a precipitous race since his first crop hit the track in 2017/18. He broke through for 100 Australian winners in a season with just three crops to the track, and then 150 when his oldest progeny were only six.

Even now, his oldest progeny are only eight, but he has 452 Australian winners to his credit, including 40 stakes winners.

At the same stage of his career in March 2020, I Am Invincible had 436 individual winners, with 49 stakes winners. Snitzel’s Australian stats at that point of his career, March 2016, were 286 winners, 33 at stakes level.

Casting further back to Zoustar’s grandsire Encosta De Lago and at that point of his career in March 2007 he had 331 Australian winners and 37 stakes winners. At the same time of their careers, fellow champion Redoute’s Choice, who features as Zoustar’s damsire, had 361 winners and 56 stakes winners, while his sire Danehill had 230 Australian winners and 60 stakes winners.    

Progeny record of significant stallions in Australia to the same point of their careers as Zoustar

* Data sourced from Arion.co.nz

Significantly, Encosta De Lago won the first of his two champion Australian titles when his oldest progeny were nine. Given the trajectory of his progeny’s success, it is possible that his grandson Zoustar could do the same in 2024/25.

That volume of racetrack success means he looks like the stallion most likely to end I Am Invincible’s hold on that champion title. This season, Zoustar is currently ranked third, $1.8 million behind So You Think in second place, but with numbers on his side, there is enough time to make up that ground.

Of course, looking at Zoustar’s Australian winners is only part of the story. As reported by The Straight in December, he was the most successful stallion in the world in 2023 when it came to winners. with 281. That was thanks to a strong contribution from his progeny conceived from Tweenhills in Europe.

He has had 87 global winners so far in 2023, 15 of them in the northern hemisphere, where the flat season is only really just getting going. He will be hard to hold out for leading winner-getter in the world again in 2024.

We are now seeing the first green shoots of the next part of Zoustar’s legacy. Saturday saw his son Zousain, who is also based at Widden, become Zoustar’s first stakes-producing sire son thanks to Drifting’s win in the Magic Night Stakes.

Meanwhile, Zoustar recently had his first stakes winner as a broodmare sire when Holmes A Court won the Black Opal Stakes in Canberra. That colt as well as Zoustar’s own son Espionage will take their place in this Saturday’s Golden Slipper.

Run The Numbers – Widden Stud’s sire sensation Zoustar on top of the world

Zoustar’s dazzling start to the 2023/24 Australian racing season is poised to have an important global impact on his figures.

The StraightBren O’Brien