Run The Numbers – An influence runs Deep into the next generation

Much has been made about Sheza Alibi’s humble pedigree and price tag, but you don’t have to go back far in her family to see a host of towering influences.

On the second line of her dam Sheza Gypsy’s pedigree sits the pre-eminent precocity and speed of Flying Spur and Our Maizcay, who fought out a series of battles across their two-and-three-year-old careers in the mid-1990s.  

Flying Spur had the edge in the Golden Slipper, where Our Maizcay ran fourth, while in the spring it was Our Maizcay’s turn to shine as the front-running Kiwi won the San Domenico, the Up and Coming Stakes and the Caulfield Guineas with Flying Spur among the beaten brigade.

But the phenomenal global influence comes through Sheza Alibi’s sire, Saxon Warrior. His sire Deep Impact and damsire Galileo are among the most important global stallions of the 21st century.  

There are only 41 runners by Deep Impact out of Galileo mares, but eight of them won stakes races and three won Group 1 races: Auguste Rodin, Snowfall and Saxon Warrior.

As a racehorse, Saxon Warrior won two Group 1s, including the 2000 Guineas, becoming the first Japanese-bred horse to win a British Classic.

The race has produced future champion sires such as Frankel, Sea The Stars and Night Of Thunder in recent years. His victory in 2018 set him on the path for a successful career at stud for his owners, Coolmore.

Among Saxon Warrior’s nine crops of racing age across two hemispheres have been 23 stakes winners from 604 runners. It is a solid record, with his only other Group 1 winner until Sheza Alibi came along being Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Victoria Road, who is now plying his trade for Ciaron Maher in Australia.

In Australia, where he shuttled to Jerry Plains from 2019 to 2022, serving 387 mares across four seasons, he has had 134 runners, with 78 winners, including a lone stakes winner.

The son of Deep Impact’s influence in Australia would have been forgettable if not for his third-crop daughter who now looms as one of the top-two horses in Australia after her victory in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes on Saturday.

The four-year-old now has three Group 1 victories, two against open age, and is an odds-on favourite for the Golden Eagle in late October.

She became the second descendant of Deep Impact to win the Flemington feature, following on from his son Fierce Impact’s victory in 2020.

But as the one-time $10,000 weanling builds her formidable record – she now has eight wins from 12 starts, and $4.3 million in prize money – she is also mounting a case for the next generation of Deep Impact descendants.

Sheza Alibi is the first Australian-bred grandson or granddaughter of Deep Impact to win a Group 1 race but is unlikely to be the last. There are two more bred in New Zealand, Pennyweka, a daughter of Satono Aladdin who won the Australian Oaks, and Pignan, a daughter of Staphanos.

Only 13 Group 1 winners globally fit this profile and, apart from Saxon Warrior, leading Japanese stallion Kizuna is the only other sire son of Deep Impact to have multiple Group 1 winners on his resume.

He has five in total and may add a sixth in the near future after the dominant win of Monroe Walk, out of Aussie Group 1 winner Amphitrite, in a key lead-up to next month’s Shuka Sho.

There are now 202 stakes winners by sons of Deep Impact, closing in on the 209 stakes winners the superstar stallion produced himself. If you add to that his 71 stakes winners as a broodmare sire, he is now closing in on 500 stakes-winning descendants in total.

In terms of total Group 1-winning descendants, Deep Impact had 59 of his own progeny, 13 by his sire sons, and six out of his daughters.

That impact will grow in Australia and New Zealand with his Australian-bred Group 1-winning son Profondo having his first crop to the track from his Windsor Park base this season.

Then there is his barnmate Auguste Rodin, whose first foals have arrived this season and who has the profile and support to make a major mark on the Australasian scene.

Fierce Impact’s oldest crop has just turned four, while his other active descendant in Australia, Lauda Sion, a son of Real Impact, has his first yearlings this season.

There is also the ongoing influence of Rich Hill’s Satono Aladdin, who had a Group 3 winner at Flemington on Saturday, and Novara Park’s Staphanos.

With his final Japanese crop having turned six, there are unlikely to be many additions to Deep Impact’s amazing record with his own progeny in Australia. That currently stands at 33 winners from 49 runners, including 10 stakes winners, five of whom are individual Group 1 winners.

Deep Impact is yet to have a stakes winner as a broodmare sire in Australia. Warp Speed came closest in his narrow Melbourne Cup defeat.

But according to the Australian Studbook, he has at least 32 daughters at stud in Australia, among them Group 1 winner Glint Of Hope and stakes winners City Of Lights, Ghaanati and As Time Goes By.