On Saturday, the progeny of experienced sires were to the fore in Australia’s two-year-old stakes races, but on Sunday a first-season sire had the first two home in the Black Opal. The week’s Run The Numbers looks at which profile of stallion statistically performs better.
For a thoroughbred who didn’t hit the track himself until he was three, Street Boss has proven an extraordinarily consistent producer of stakes-winning two-year-olds, especially in Australia.
Saturday’s Street Boss sweep of the two-year-old features, the Todman Stakes and the Reisling Stakes, was not only a much-needed fillip for Godolphin after a week beset with rumour, but it also demonstrated the considerable value that the American-bred chestnut has brought to Darley’s roster for over a decade.
Thanks to Tentyris and Tempted, he has now had two-year-old stakes winners with each of his past six Australian crops of racing age. Overall, he now has 13 stakes-winning juveniles in Australia from 242 runners and 64 winners.
Having had Anamoe run second in the Golden Slipper in 2021 and Traffic Warden run fourth in last year’s race, Street Boss now has one of the favourites for this year’s edition in the James Cummings-trained filly Tempted. Sadly, Tentyris won’t be there after pulling up with an injury from Saturday’s race.
Both were from Exceed And Excel mares, taking that combination to a lofty 14 per cent stakes-winners-to-runners ratio, with seven black-type winners from 47.
It was a big Saturday for two-year-olds by proven stallions, with I Am Invincible’s Vinrock winning the Sires’ Produce Stakes at Flemington and Written Tycoon’s Military Tycoon taking out the Ottawa Stakes. Across the ditch at Ellerslie, Snitzel celebrated his seventh individual Group-1 winning juvenile with Return To Conquer successful in the Sistema Stakes.
It was an interesting contrast to recent weeks in Australia where young sires had been at the forefront in key two-year-old races, including freshmen Lucky Vega (Within The Law), Bivouac (Beiwacht) and Ole Kirk (O’ Ole).
On Sunday, the theme re-emerged when the progeny of first-season sire Farnan, quinellaed the Black Opal Stakes at Canberra, with King Of Pop defeating Farcited.
All in all, there have been six individual stakes-winning two-year-olds in Australia this season by first-season sires, and between them they have won nine individual stakes races. The progeny of these sires are running at 3.5 per cent stakes-winners-to-runners in 2024/25.
That is almost the same as the general sire population. There have been 830 two-year-old starters in Australia this season, with 29 of them having already registered a stakes win. That is a strike rate of 3.5 per cent.
First-season sires are doing better when it comes to winners-to runners from two-year-olds, with 22.1 per cent compared to 16.6 per cent strike rate, and significantly better on prize money per runner, at $48,755 compared to $30,253 for all two-year-old runners.
That latter stat is helped by the fact that O Ole is the leading two-year-old earner this season, with $1.9 million, thanks largely to her Magic Millions win, while Within The Law is one of three others to have earned $1 million or more so far.
To put it into context, the progeny of first-season sires in Australia in 2024/25 make up 20.7 per cent of two-year-old runners, but 27.5 per cent of winners, 25.4 per cent of wins, and 33.4 per cent of overall money won.
2024/25 – Comparison first season sires to all sires – two-year-old stats
Source: Arion.co.nz
It is a similar theme to the stats for the first-season sires in the 2023/24 season.
In that instance, that crop had 22.5 per cent of two-year-old runners and overperformed on percentage of two-year-old winners (25.8 per cent), wins (26.2 per cent) and overall prize money (29.8 per cent). However, they slightly underperformed when it came to stakes winners (22 per cent).
The season before that, 2022/23, saw an abnormally low percentage of two-year-old runners by first-season sires, just 17.4 per cent. Winners and wins by juveniles from these sires as a percentage of the overall were on par with that representation. However, freshman sires that season overperformed when it came to the percentage of stakes winners (23), and stakes wins (23.6).
In 2022/21, progeny of first-season sires made up 19.4 per cent of overall two-year-old runners, and slightly underperformed on a proportion of winners (19.3) and wins (18.2). That crop of freshmen significantly underperformed that season on the percentage of two-year-old stakes winners (9.4 per cent) and stakes wins (9.7 per cent).
King Of Pop defeats Farcited in the Black Opal Stakes. (Vision: YouTube)
In 2020/21, some 26.3 per cent of two-year-old stakes winners in Australia were by first-season sires, but that was a year where 28.4 per cent of two-year-old runners fitted that profile, so again, they underperformed.
Across the past five Australian seasons, we have a strong sample size of how first-season sires fare against the proven sires. So how does it end up?
The stats show that first-season sire progeny outperformed the general population of sires in four of the five categories. Of all two-year-old runners since 2020/21, 22 per cent were from the first crop of their sire.
Those horses slightly outperform that when it comes to the total two-year-old winners (22.8 per cent), wins (22.4 per cent), and overall prize money (24.6 per cent). They have also won more than their fair share (22.2 per cent) of stakes wins.
However, when it comes to the overall stakes winners, they make up 20.4 per cent, around 1.6 per cent beneath their overall representation.
Based on those stats, if you buy the progeny of a first-season sire, you are more likely to have a two-year-old winner and earn more prize money. However, by a small margin, if you wanted a stakes winner, based on those numbers, you’d be better off betting on experience,
First-season sire progeny stats as a percentage of all two-year-olds in Australia
Source: Arion.co.nz
