Run The Numbers – March G1 treble ends Cummings’ summer of struggle

Anamoe was always going to be a hard act to follow for the next generation of Godolphin stars, but after an extended period of toil, the autumn is starting to bring rewards for James Cummings.

The departure of Vin Cox in the spring was seen across the industry as a bit of a crossroads for Godolphin.

One of the most respected thoroughbred executives in the land had decided his career was best served elsewhere. Yulong’s emergence had made it clear that Godolphin, a global powerhouse over the past 30 years, was no longer necessarily the No.1 destination for the best and brightest in Australia.

Cox’s departure came at a point of inflection anyway for Godolphin and its Darley stallion operation. The 2022/23 season had been, thanks largely to Anamoe, a career-best for James Cummings, with 11 Group 1 wins and over $35 million worth of prizemoney banked. However, change comes quick.

Anamoe, the most prolific Group 1 winner in the blue army’s global history, retired, so too did fellow Group 1 winner Paulele, leaving Cummings with only a trio of elite winners in his stable, Cascadian, In Secret and Golden Mile, ahead of the new season.

The spring of 2023 did bring further Group 1 success, but interestingly both came in races over extended distances with Tom Kitten taking out the Spring Champion Stakes and Zardozi the VRC Oaks. In an industry obsessed with speed and minting stallions, this wasn’t the usual formula.

Cummings’ 12 stakes successes across the spring was nine fewer than his total in the same period of 2022, during which time he claimed nine Group 1 races.

During the peak October and November period in 2023, Cummings’ win rate dropped to 14 per cent – it had been near 20 per cent through 2022/23 – as he played little more than a supporting role through the peak period of the year.

The on-track drought was compounded by the uncertainty in the front office, where the departure of Cox had cast a cloud. Speculation mounted as to who would be his replacement but over six months after he announced his departure, Cox’s position is yet to be filled.

If spring was uncertain, then summer was just plain tough for Cummings. December yielded just seven winners at a 13 per cent strike rate, while January was even tougher toil with six winners from 49 starters.

What was also clear was that Cummings’ total number of starters was down. To this point of the season, he has had the ninth most runners of any trainer in the country. He was sixth on that metric last year and top five in every other season with Godolphin.

According to Racing NSW’s list of named horses in his stable, he has 288 on the books. In comparison, Ciaron Maher has 539 named horses and Chris Waller 482.

James Cummings’ season by season 

Off the back of a difficult spring and a very dry summer, questions were rightly being asked of where Godolphin would be in the spotlight of the autumn.

Last season, Cummings had won an extraordinary 33 stakes races from January to July, but down on quality and quantity, a repeat of that seemed highly unlikely.

One stakes win for the stable in each of January and February was hardly a lightning start, but there are signs of a much improved return, at stakes level at least, through March.

Cummings had 10 wins in March at a frankly underwhelming strike rate of 11 per cent. However, six of those wins have been in Group races, three of them in Group 1 races.

The victory of Cylinder in the Newmarket Handicap proved an important breakthrough. Long regarded as a Darley stallion in waiting, a Group 1 victory was the only thing really missing from the resume of the Exceed And Excel colt.

⚜️ Congratulations to connections of Cylinder, who claims the G1 Yulong Newmarket Hcp in style for Godolphin at @FlemingtonVRC.@jamieleekah07 takes home the Dean Holland Trophy in honour of last year's gracious winning-jockey #aworldofopportunity pic.twitter.com/b8sS0QzwXv

— Yulong Investments (@YulongInvest) March 9, 2024

Cylinder’s presence on a future roster is important given the changes that are taking place in the breeding barn. Lonhro was pensioned last year and Exceed And Excel this year leaving a massive gap on the Darley roster when it comes to proven stallions.

American-bred Street Boss, now focussed on duties in Australia, is the most successful sire on Darley’s roster with 22 Australian stakes winners.   

The only active Australian-bred Darley stallions with progeny older than two are Astern (six Aus stakes winners), Brazen Beau (16), Kermadec (5) and Impending (one).

There are several emerging locally produced sires, all of whom were trained by Cummings. Anamoe’s first foals will be eagerly anticipated when they arrive at the same time as Paulele’s, while Bivouac’s first crop hits the track next season. Microphone has one winner amongst 14 two-year-olds this season.

Cylinder will be the third son of Exceed And Excel on Darley’s current roster as a search for an heir to the champion stallion intensifies. Previous sons to have passed through Darley’s stallion barn include Helmet (17 SW), Kuroshio (five) and Sidestep (four).

2023 Darley Roster ranked by Australian stakes winners (not inc. Exceed and Excel)

Back on the track, last Saturday Cummings was rewarded for his patience with now five-year-old mare Zapateo, when she claimed her first Group 1 in The Galaxy. Twice placed at the elite level before, she landed an upset win with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle. It was McEvoy’s first Group 1 win for Cummings in four and a half years.

Cummings’ latest Group 1 success came with the grand old campaigner Cascadian in the Australian Cup on Saturday, his second straight win in the race.

While imports such as Hartnell, Best Of Days and Avilius have claimed top-flight wins for Cummings over the years, remarkably Cascadian is the only Northern Hemisphere-bred horse in his stable.

The son of New Approach, who began his career in France, has now won Group 1 races in Australia in each of the last four seasons, a rare feat among Australian racehorses.

Cummings’ famous grandfather, and one-time training partner, Bart, never trained a horse to win back-to-back Australian Cups, despite 13 wins in the race. Ming Dynasty did win it twice, but with two years between his wins.

James Cummings now has 47 Group 1 wins to his name. It might seem a long way short of Bart’s total of 246, but it is worth reflecting that he is only 36 years old. Bart didn’t get the first of his famous 12 Melbourne Cup victories until he was 38.

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