Rowe On Monday: So You Think loss to be felt in investment, Napoleonic upgrade, global crop downturn and Lowry’s Derby prospect

Ramage reflects on investing beyond So You Think

Last week’s untimely death of So You Think, the champion racehorse turned top-class stallion, will have far-reaching consequences for not only Coolmore but other Australian industry investors as well.

For more than a decade, Duncan Ramage has overseen the late Malaysian businessman Dato Tan Chin Nam’s Think Big Stud as a racing operation without any external funding.

Dato Tan Chin Nam’s colours have been on some of the Australian turf’s greatest horses – So You Think and Saintly as well as Melbourne Cup winner Viewed – and they also greeted the judge at Hawkesbury last Thursday with four-year-old Perfect Justice scoring at the NSW provincial track.

Upon reflecting upon the career of So You Think, who died from a liver disease last Monday, Ramage says the business model of Think Big Stud will need to be altered to account for the loss of income that was generated by the Coolmore-based sire’s stud career.

“We’ve been buying about 12 yearlings a year for the family to race, along with partners, and that’s all been funded on the sale of horses from the stable, the likes of Norzita, who we sold, and Allez Wonder, who made good money (and won) prize money,” Ramage told the Straight Talk podcast. 

“And, of course, So You Think was chipping in a good whack into the pool as well. So we’re 12 years in with no external funding, but I’m obviously going to have to look at that funding model with a very sharp pencil now, because with the security of So You Think, you could forecast what you’re going to get going forward. 

“I will not be able to forecast for the same degree of accuracy because you’re reliant on prize money. 

“So am I going to have another top-class mare, again, let’s reference the Norzita, and be able to sell her for $1.7 million to buy more yearlings? 

“You can’t forecast that – you can hope it – so, yes, the budget’s going to get a bit tighter and we’ll have to probably restructure the depth of their (Tan Chin Nam family’s) ongoing involvement with Think Big Stud.”

Among Ramage’s yearling purchases in 2025 was an Inglis Easter graduate by none other than So You Think out of Ruud Not Too, a colt bred by Sir Owen Glenn’s Go Bloodstock. He is a half-brother to the stakes winner Cottee, a mare by Merchant Navy.

The long-time agent also signed for colts by Proisir and Toronado at the New Zealand Bloodstock Karaka sale in January.

Dream result for Mallyon

There’s a Zoustar mare by the name of Moonlight Dream in training with Brett Mallyon at Albury, who is all of a sudden worth a lot more than she was last Friday.

And Mallyon has his son-in-law, champion jockey James McDonald, to thank for significantly increasing her value after he guided her three-year-old half-brother Napoleonic to victory in the Group 3 Red Anchor Stakes at Moonee Valley.

Moonlight Dream, a maiden winner at Newcastle for her original trainer Joe Pride last December, was sold via Inglis Digital in August for $65,000.

At that stage, the John O’Shea and Tom Charlton-trained Napoleonic, a colt by Wootton Bassett, had shown promise in two starts as a juvenile.

But soon after Moonlight Dream’s purchase, the Jonathan Munz-owned Napoleonic won at Wyong maiden and a midweek city race at Warwick Farm.

O’Shea and Charlton have said that the Wootton Bassett colt won’t back up in Saturday’s Coolmore and would rather be sent to the paddock with a view to targeting bigger races in the autumn.

It’ll be Mallyon’s job to win a race or two to Moonlight Dream to add to her value while Napoleonic does the heavy lifting. 

Foal crops on the decline globally

The decline of the Australian foal crop will become evident when the breeding season is completed in the next two months.

It’s certain that the number of foals born this year will fall – there were 11,711 born in 2024 – but by how much is yet to be determined.

The decrease isn’t isolated to Australia or New Zealand, with the UK and US also reporting smaller foal crops this year.

Weatherbys reported last week that the return of mares found foals born in England and Ireland this year was 11,374, down 9.5 per cent year-on-year. 

The US also experienced a downturn in foal numbers, albeit not as dramatic as in the UK and Ireland, with 17,103 live foals reported to the Jockey Club, a 3.4 per cent decline from 2024.

The statistics also point to the unsurprising dominance of Kentucky-based stallions – the world’s thoroughbred brewing heartland – with 11,288 foals by sires located in the state.

Lowry on the money with Azazel

Kiwi horsepeople playing traders have long been part of the industry across the Tasman – it helps pay the bills.

At Geelong on Thursday, well-known New Zealander and Group 1-winning trainer Guy Lowry’s eye for a talented horse was on full display.

Azazel, a three-year-old by Shocking, won the Geelong Classic on his way to a probable start in this weekend’s Victoria Derby.

Lowry paid just $15,000 for the colt in January last year from the Grangewilliam Stud draft before reselling him to Te Akau’s David Ellis at the NZB Ready to Run Sale for $140,000 last November through the Riverrock Farm consignment.

“I like to do one a year, buy a yearling to then prepare for the Ready To Run Sale, and the one before Azazel was Immediacy (Tarzino) that Chad (Ormsby) also put through the sale and he won a Group 2 at Caulfield for Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young,” Lowry said.

“I’ve had a good week, with Jimmysstar (Per Incanto) finishing third in the Everest, who we trained before he went to Australia, and now Azazel.

“I sat down with Mark (Walker) after Te Akau bought Azazel and wished him all the best with the horse. He was a really nice horse. He threw a leg a little bit, but breezed up beautifully, and he was a treat to do anything with.”