What will be the five biggest stories in wagering in 2026?

At the risk of angering Punxsutawney Phil with yet another reference to Groundhog Day, there is a familiar look to our forecasts of what might be the biggest wagering stories of 2026.

Tabcorp is always a constant theme, especially with Gillon McLachlan pursuing a quite different retail-led strategy, while the uncertainty over wagering advertising stretches into a fourth calendar year.

Entain’s challenges have been on the agenda throughout 2025 and we can expect that to be the case through most of 2026, while suggestions of further mergers and acquisitions continue to persist.

Then there is the question of the impact of the Queensland government’s decision not to change the Point Of Consumption tax, despite the recommendation of an independent review. The big bookies are none-too-pleased with that, but what will be the impact?

5. The Tabcorp quaddie bracket – The National Tote and the NSW

Gillon McLachlan has been unashamedly an advocate for achieving a national tote since he stepped into the Tabcorp hotseat in August 2024. While there is upside commercially in pooling all three parimutuel pools, the symbolic value of achieving what no wagering or racing administrator has before and getting it over the line would be significant.

He has set himself a deadline, the end of the current financial year, to untangle the necessary state-by-state regulatory red tape and get it done. We are told that it remains on track, barring any last-minute hiccups. While tote betting only now represents around 16 per cent of Australia turnover, Tabcorp do have a near national monopoly over that pool.

Separately there is the current Tabcorp deal with New South Wales which is being renegotiated. It is due to expire in 2033, but both Tabcorp and the New South Wales industry want it changed. They even have a government imprimatur to get it done. The Straight has been told that it is being dealt with at senior levels. That is, McLachlan liaising directly with Racing NSW CEO Peter V’landys, but it is taking its time to come together. A result by 2026 would be seen as a good outcome for Tabcorp.

4. Further market consolidation

This has been a constant theme since the number of bookies exploded during the post-pandemic wagering boom. The likelihood of this depends on which end of the market you are talking about.

At the shallow end, there seems to be no end to the “pop-up bookie” phenomenon, while there is also a stated goal of the likes of CrossBet to sweep up smaller players in order to achieve greater scale. There is nothing on a regulatory or economic level which would indicate that 2026 would be any different.

In the middle, there is one player with a stated goal of acquisition and growth and that is betr. 2025 featured the acquisition of TopSport, plus a concerted but ultimately failed push to secure control of PointsBet. Rarely content to stand still, Matthew Tripp and Andrew Menz still want to build to that plus-10 per cent space, but they are running out of possible suitors.

That brings us to the top end. Sportsbet’s acquiring days look to be well past with likely objections to any moves on competition grounds given its dominant market share. Tabcorp are still in rebuild mode, and while an acquisition or two in the coming years wouldn’t surprise, until the national tote and the NSW deal are done, it would seem unlikely that the company will be looking to fill the shopping cart.

That leaves Entain, which is very much focused on the business of selling bets through Ladbrokes and Neds. Rumours persist that its Australian business might be acquired elsewhere, but new CEO Andrew Vouris has insisted the company remains committed to Australia.

Then there is the ‘wildcard’ of Easygo, the parent company of global wagering brand, Stake.com, and its desire for a position in the regulated Australian market.

3. Wagering advertising

It’s groundhog day…. again. We won’t reprise directly what we have said in this column the past two years, but the industry is still waiting on what the federal government might decide in its response to the You Win Some, You Lose More Report.

About a month ago, there was a suggestion we could get a view on what relatively new Communications Minister Anika Wells might be planning early in 2026. But 2025 ended with a suite of concerns raised about her use of travel expenses. You get the feeling given the Wells-related headlines, that the Albanese government would not be keen to put her front and centre of a contentious policy like gambling advertising early in the New Year.

The political vacuum created by the federal government’s lack of action is fertile ground for others, who are demanding a total ban on gambling advertising. The likes of Andrew Wilkie, David Pocock and Kate Chaney won’t let this issue slip away.

What we can also expect is continued media scrutiny of the promotional activities of wagering companies . There are a host of court cases active around the country, including action against the bookies themselves.

If I was a betting man, I would not be prepared to wager about what, if any, the federal government’s response will be. What I would be happy to bet on is the government talking about the things they have done to minimise gambling harm, rather than what they will do.

2. How does the wagering industry respond to Queensland snub?

There was genuine anger from the usually measured corporate headquarters of Australia’s biggest bookies when they found out, via a third party, that the Queensland government would not be cutting the Point Of Consumption Tax to 15 per cent from its current 20 per cent level.

Senior execs had spent a lot of the past six months speaking to independent review chair Matthew McGrath about the virtues of a change, and the opportunities that would present the Queensland industry. McGrath and his committee included the change as a key part of their review to Racing Minister Tim Mander.

In October, it looked highly likely that Mander would confirm the move, but there was a hitch as to how the change would be funded. When the review was announced earlier this month, the POCT change recommendation was one of five rejected.

With no door left open for a future review, the bookmakers are assessing their options as to how they treat Queensland racing moving forward. There is a possibility that they could opt to offer little or no promotion. When the 20 per cent POCT hike was first announced in 2022, two of the biggest bookmakers took Queensland racing off their front pages.

We await to see how two of the three ‘big bookies’ act. We are told the third won’t be taking any action. We will let you figure out who that may be.

1. Entain, AUSTRAC and core business

Entain’s dramatic change in strategy was arguably the biggest wagering story of 2025 in Australia. The departure of CEO Dean Shannon, which occurred after a host of other executives left the company, was followed by the appointment of Andrew Vouris as firstly interim and then permanent CEO of the Australia and New Zealand business.

The company also exited the Ladbrokes Racing Club and has said it will reduce its presence through sponsorships and partnerships. It also reduced its Australian headcount by 120 but ensured its responsible gaming and AML teams remained intact.

With a “core business” mantra under Vouris, the future direction of the Australian business will be interesting to chart. Wagering is a business where it is very hard to stand still, you are either gaining ground or ceding it.     

Hanging over all this is the action by AUSTRAC regarding supposed anti-money laundering concerns and the possibility of a Federal Court case in November 2026. Entain has said they will contest the case if needed but is still open to settlement.

Even ignoring that case, the fact that Australia is one of the few jurisdictions where Entain is not growing its business, something largely attributable to national industry trends, does pose a few relevant questions as to where it sits in the priorities of London HQ.

New Zealand has much more upside, although some key milestones have yet to be reached in the 25-year agreement to operate TAB NZ, with a legislative net which offers a virtual monopoly, having only been in place since July.