Straight Up – Australia’s juvenile problem

In this edition:

• Run The Numbers – The ongoing collapse of Australian two-year-old racing
• Rowe On Monday – Mihalyka’s Rebel with a cause, Bivouac on the march, Powrie the horseman and Magic Millions farewells Hayward 
• Talented Snitzel mare Vienna Princess added to Magic Millions Virtual Sale 
• Godolphin’s SA Derby placegetter Lavalier heading west after $380,000 online sale 
• Fastnet’s Rock’s record HK season

When Corumbene Stud’s homebred filly Overreach won the 2013 Golden Slipper, the race was worth $3.5 million.

That 2012/13 Australian racing season, owners, trainers and jockeys competed for their share of $489 million in prize money, and more than 3000 two-year-old runners raced across this vast country.

Overreach raced five times that season, with her Golden Slipper triumph trainer Gai Waterhouse’s fifth of what is now eight victories for the Hall Of Famer in the world’s richest two-year-old race.

She was one of 17,191 foals born in 2010 and the daughter of Exceed And Excel was crowned the best of them all at two.

But as Bren O’Brien’s Run The Numbers column found, Australian racing’s fascination – and reputation – for two-year-old racing isn’t matched by the data as owners and trainers show an increasing degree of patience when it comes to managing the careers of their young horses.

Since Overreach’s two-year-old season, prize money for the Golden Slipper has increased to $5 million and total Australian prize money has more than doubled to a record high $986 million distributed in 2023/24.

Prize money for two-year-old stakes races accounted for 11 per cent of overall stakes race prize money in 2013/14, but only 10.3 per cent in 2024/25.

It appears that the risk-reward for owners and trainers in an era where there are far greater riches on offer for older horses, as well as the initial capital required to buy a racehorse (the average yearling sale price has gone up 98 per cent since 2013), has led to a more conservative approach.

Torryburn Stud announced that a filly by 2023 Golden Slipper winner Shinzo was born at their lower Hunter Valley farm on Monday. She’s one of, if not the first, foals born in Australia this year in a crop which is predicted to be the smallest since the mid-1970s, possibly fewer than 11,000.

It’s a broken record, but to account for the changing foal crops and dynamics of Australian racing, a root-and-branch reform of the country’s black-type Pattern is long overdue.

Meanwhile, Laurel Oak Bloodstock’s Louis Mihalyka knows better than anyone about the unpredictability and volatility of breeding and racing horses – and winning the Golden Slipper.

His dual Group 1-winning sprinter Rebel Dane, whose daughter Fireburn won the 2022 Golden Slipper, will turn 16 next week and the new racing season will be pivotal to whether the stallion’s commercial popularity can be recharged with his biggest crop of two-year-olds set to hit the track.

Mihalyka and the fortunes of Rebel Dane feature in this week’s Rowe On Monday.

In contrast to Rebel Dane, Coolmore’s champion sire Fastnet Rock was well-supported by breeders from the get-go and he didn’t let them down, with the now-pensioned stallion siring 197 individual stakes winners. He’s also a champion broodmare sire, and he achieved a record Hong Kong season as a broodmare sire in the just completed 2024/25 year. 

Of course, Fastnet Rock is also the sire of the northern hemisphere-bred Via Sistina, a nine-time Group 1 winner who was given a quiet comeback barrier trial at Randwick on Tuesday as Chris Waller prepares her for a tilt at back-to-back Cox Plates.

In auction news, stakes-winning Snitzel mare Vienna Princess will be offered at the Magic Millions Virtual Sale on August 5, while Godolphin reaped more than $2 million with a reduction sale via Inglis Digital last week.

The good horses aren’t far away from a return, and there’s plenty to look forward to in the new season.

Enjoy your racing week.

Regards,

Tim Rowe

Senior Journalist

The Straight