Does The Everest’s barrier record really condemn gate 11?

Ka Ying Rising will defend The Everest on Saturday from a barrier that has never produced the winner. Gate 11 is zero from nine since the race began in 2017, and the reigning champion drew it on Tuesday.

But the rest of the ledger tells a different story.

The Everest’s nine winners have come from eight different barriers. Only gate 5 has produced two. The outside four gates have supplied three winners from 36 draws: Yes Yes Yes from 9 in 2019, Nature Strip from 10 in 2021 and Bella Nipotina from 12 in 2024. That is one winner in every 12 wide draws, approximately the share the fields would hand out evenly.

Bella Nipotina’s win needs a qualification. She was drawn 12 but faced only 10 rivals after Traffic Warden, drawn 2, was scratched at the barriers. The 2020 field stayed at 12, with Dollar For Dollar called up for Farnan; Kementari replaced Lost And Running on race day in 2022.

Gate 11 itself has been competitive. Mazu ran third from it behind Giga Kick in 2022. Lady Of Camelot was fourth in 2024. Jimmysstar finished third from 11 last year, behind Ka Ying Rising, who won from 7. The wide gates have also produced Bivouac’s second from 10 in 2020 and Masked Crusader’s second from 9 in 2021.

Nine runnings is a small sample. It records results, but it cannot separate the barrier from the horse, its racing pattern, the pace or the conditions on the day.

In this case, the horse is exceptional. Ka Ying Rising arrives on a run of 21 consecutive wins with a world-leading 135 rating, earned partly when he broke his own Sha Tin 1200-metre course record in September.

Tempted, last year’s runner-up, has drawn 1, Jimmysstar 8 and Giga Kick 12 in the $20 million race.

David Hayes sees one practical advantage in the draw. Ka Ying Rising can be fidgety in the gates, and Australian loading sends him in second last.

Hayes agrees the risk lies in the surface not the barrier. Ka Ying Rising is comfortable on slow or dead ground but Hayes does not know how Ka Ying Rising would handle an Australian heavy track.

“I’d be more worried about a heavy 10 than barrier 11,” Hayes said.