‘A strong reform package is coming’ - Odds shorten on post-election wagering advertising changes

As the odds of the ruling Labor government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese retaining office have shortened significantly over the election campaign, so too have the chances that wagering advertising in Australia will face a substantial post-election shakeup.

Gambling reform — *The issue of gambling advertising reform has been left on the federal election campaign backburner ahead of the May 3 poll. (Photo by Jason Edwards-Pool/Getty Images)*

Labor effectively ran out the clock on any legislative changes late last year, despite the eagerness of Communication Minister Michelle Rowland to get the reform into the current parliament.

In what has since emerged was a “captain’s call” by Albanese, the Prime Minister decided the fight with betting companies, sports bodies and media organisations wasn’t worth having with an election up for grabs in 2025.

Reform to the promotion of advertising had been on the agenda since the findings of the “You Win Some, You Lose More” parliamentary report in June 2023 from a bi-partisan committee chaired by the late Labor MP Peta Murphy.

There were 31 recommendations in the report, but there are two which drew the most political attention. The first was a detailed plan for the comprehensive ban of all forms of online gambling advertising to be introduced in four phases over three years.

The second was that the government prohibits all online gambling inducements and inducement advertising, and that it do so without delay. The definition of inducement wasn’t made clear.

After 14 months, Rowland briefed stakeholders last August on Labor’s proposed gambling reforms, including caps of two gambling advertisements per hour per channel, and a blanket ban through social media.

However, when the plans were leaked, it caused a political storm, with the crossbenchers such as Senator David Pocock describing it as a “cop out and a betrayal of Murphy’s legacy”, while the wagering industry feared the measures, in particular the social media ban, went too far.

Albanese took a string of calls and meetings on the issue including a 20-minute in-person chat with Racing NSW chief executive and Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’landys in August.

While the crossbench agitated for change, Labor didn’t progress its proposals into legislation, with Albanese on message whenever he was asked if the advertising changes should be made.

“It’s not a matter of doing something in order to satisfy a perception of boldness. It’s a matter of getting policy right,” he said in September.

At that point, Labor’s chances of retaining government were slipping with every poll. In January, as it became clear that there was no chance of wagering reform before the election, the odds of a change of government were $1.72.

But a host of events, both global and national, now see Labor as $1.20 favourites to retain office just over a week out from a May 3 election.

When asked about wagering reform earlier in the campaign, Albanese repeated his government’s achievements in establishing consumer protection and a national self-exclusion scheme.

“There’s more to do. But … I’m proud that my government’s done more than any other government ever,” the Prime Minister said.

But having avoided a campaign fight over the issue, the bookies’ markets are telling the PM that the very cross benchers Labor angered over its lack of movement on gambling reform are the same people he may have to rely upon to secure government.

A Labor minority government is now favourite at $2 with bookmakers, while a Labor majority is priced at $2.50. A coalition minority is $5 and a coalition majority is $18.

The overall odds of a hung parliament, where neither party manages to get 76 or more seats to rule in its own right, is $1.40, meaning independents and members of minority parties are favoured to have a major say in the legislative agenda of the next parliament.

Teal independents as well as Rebekah Sharkie, Andrew Wilkie and the Greens have all put on the record their desire to see the “You Win Some, You Lose More” reforms implemented in full, including a totall ban of gambling advertising.

Even in the instance of a majority government, Labor could face some headaches, with several of its own members publicly unhappy with the lack of action on gambling reform.

MP for Bennelong, Jerome Laxale, told a candidate forum this week that he was disappointed with Labor’s lack of action on wagering reform.

“There’s a couple of disappointments I have in my own government – I have been open about that – and not being able to implement more of Peta Murphy’s review is one of them,” Laxale said.

“I know there is more to do. The former member Peta Murphy did that report. She was well respected in our caucus, and we have to honour her legacy. I am hopeful that we can do that in a second term.”

Significantly, he predicted a suite of reforms should Labor be re-elected as expected.

“There is a strong reform package coming and I will work incredibly hard to ensure that happens in a second term Labor government,” he said.

“I know that whatever we bring to the parliament – whenever we bring it – will be strong. My role is to try and make it as strong as possible.”

Should opposition leader Peter Dutton pull off an upset victory, then it is likely he too may need some crossbench support to govern. The willingness to move on gambling advertising could prove useful.

Dutton put a ban on advertising during live sport on the agenda in May 2023, but has been quiet on the issue through the election campaign.