O’Brien on Monday – A Pattern of ongoing concern, a stallion-maker in more ways than one, Hellbent and Arrowfield enjoy a big weekend

Australia’s black-type pattern for the current 2026/27 season is now set in stone, albeit nearly two months after the season began.

The Asian Pattern Committee, which took over the responsibility for the Australian pattern after a nearly decade-long impasse within Australian racing ranks, confirmed the changes for the second half of the black-type program, from January 2027 onwards, in a release last Thursday.

There was some surprise in the industry that Australia was granted an additional Group 1, its 77th, with the Apollo Stakes getting an upgrade. It becomes the sixth open-age weight-for-age Group 1 of the season over 1400 metres, and the third at Randwick.

Despite the involvement of the Australian black-type advisory group, ratings are clearly driving many of the changes. After such a long period of stasis, there is a lot to review.

Of the 48 races to either get an upgrade or be awarded black-type status for the first time in 2026/27, 35 are over distances between 1000 metres and 1500 metres.

Conversely, of the seven races which have had their status reduced, six are over 2400 metres or further.

Some may reasonably argue that the heavy weighting to speed over stamina in the latest pattern changes is a long-awaited reflection of the long-term move towards sprinters over stayers.

However, there is rising concern in the industry that Australia’s staying pattern risks being lost if the trend continues.

There were four Group 1 races whose status the APC effectively said was under review moving forward. Three of them, the Victoria Derby, the Queensland Derby and the Sydney Cup, are staying races.

The APC also confirmed last month that the Metropolitan Handicap would lose its Group 1 status, after Racing NSW decided not to change its race conditions.

The reaction in the industry to the changes has been mixed, with some understandably concerned about what it might mean for Australian staying ranks.

The Victoria Racing Club and Racing Victoria were concerned enough about the Group 1 future of the Victoria Derby that they added an additional $1 million to the prize money for the race.

After years of arguing that prize money should not be permitted to ‘buy’ black-type progression, Victoria has been forced to concede that it may be the only way to save the premium status of its feature race on the Melbourne Cup carnival’s traditional opening day.

But while self-interest no doubt plays a part, there are concerns about what continued changes to the pattern under a primarily ratings-based system may mean long term.

Assuming Australia does not get control back of its pattern in the next couple of years, what does it look like after more changes of the type we have seen?

A Golden moment for Sword Of State

The Golden Rose was elevated from an innovation to Group 1 within five years and it now sits proudly as one of the most important races for both the racing and breeding industry, despite not having a prize money rise since its inauguration under its current name in 2003.

Bjorn Baker has won richer races as a trainer, but few as valuable as Warwoven’s success on Saturday, which sets his future up as a stallion and added at least $20 million to his price tag.

Who ends up standing the son of Sword Of State at stud will be intriguing, although his breeders, Kia Ora, who are partners in Vinery, still feature in his ownership.

Of more immediate impact is the value of Cambridge Stud’s Sword Of State, the son of Snitzel, who is now the first Kiwi-based stallion to have produced a Golden Rose winner.

After the loss of Super Seth, New Zealand was crying out for a young stallion to fill the substantial shoes left by the death of Savabeel. Sword Of State now has a Group 1-winning son, anointed for a spot on a major Australian roster, having had only 27 runners to the track.

Importantly, he has had success in Australia, with three winners, including two stakes winners, from just nine runners.

It is the third season in a row a second-season stallion has produced the winner of the Golden Rose after Beiwacht’s victory for Bivouac last year and Broadsiding’s win for Too Darn Hot in 2024.

Sword Of State was one of a trio of second-season stallions to taste stakes success in Australia over the weekend.

Stay Inside’s Blue Door was brilliant in winning the Listed Heritage Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday, while Palace Pier, who only made the one shuttling trip to Australia, looks to have a very smart first-crop filly in Regal Ambition, who won the Listed Jim Moloney Stakes.

A Hell of a weekend

There was a noteworthy international stakes double for Yarraman Park’s Hellbent over the weekend as well.

Hawea showed herself to be among the better three-year-old fillies in New Zealand with victory in the Group 3 Gold Trial Stakes at Hastings on Saturday for trainers Graham Richardson and Rogan Norvall. She is on target for the 1000 Guineas later in the spring.

At Sha Tin, Hong Kong Derby hero Invincible Ibis returned for the new season with an impressive win of the Group 3 Celebration Cup.

Trainer Mark Newnham is looking to aim him at the Hong Kong Mile on International Day in December.

Arrowfield’s day out at Rosehill

Another noteworthy result came in the Group 2 Golden Pendant, where graduates from Arrowfield filled the trifecta, with Lazzura, a daughter of Snitzel, defeating the Castelvecchio pair Verona Rose and Modella.

The victory of Skyhook, another Arrowfield-sold yearling, followed in the Group 2 Shannon Stakes, while another graduate, St Gotthard, was runner-up in the Golden Rose after his brother Decorum had impressed in an earlier Rosehill victory.

Their dam, Ms Bad Behavior, is set to foal to The Autumn Sun, who had his 12th individual stakes winner thanks to Changing Colours at Caulfield on Sunday in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes.

Arrowfield graduate Regal Ambition is another headed to Group 1 company after her breakthrough stakes win in the Listed Jim Moloney Stakes at Caulfield.

Tim Rowe is on leave and will return with Rowe On Monday next week