The Todman paradox – Connections of Slipper favourite hold fire on stallion deal

Golden Slipper favourite Paradoxium has been declared off limits to stallion farms in the countdown to a potentially career-changing bid for glory in the $5 million race.

Agent Jim Clarke revealed he had been fielding calls from interested parties about acquiring equity in the Extreme Choice colt, a winner of two races from three starts.

But trainer Bjorn Baker and the two-year-old’s fellow owners have decided not to entertain offers until Paradoxium contests the world’s richest juvenile event at Rosehill on Saturday week.

Paradoxium, whose Magic Millions 2YO Classic campaign was derailed by travel sickness late last year, produced a dominant first-up Todman Stakes performance at the weekend to signal his Slipper campaign was well and truly back on track.

The colt emerged from the Todman as the $6 equal favourite for the Slipper alongside Chayan, the winner of the key fillies’ lead-up on the same Randwick card, the Reisling Stakes. 

Clarke, who works closely with Baker and helped select $400,000 Magic Millions buy Paradoxium at last year’s Gold Coast sale, reasoned that the colt’s upward trajectory and the timing of the Slipper made it wise to defer talks with stud farms.

“We’ve been contacted by a few of the farms that would be potentially interested in him, but essentially we decided we’d just push on towards the Slipper and then kind of see what happens beyond that,” Clarke told The Straight.

“He’s got a broad ownership base and there’s only two weeks between the Todman and the Golden Slipper, so as a group we decided that it was in the best interests of the horse just to focus on the race rather than the distraction of potentially selling him.

“There’s plenty of things that need to kind of fall in place for a stallion deal like that to happen.

“The fact that he’s favourite with the potential upside (of that), if he was able to deliver on what he’s shown, it’d be worth holding out for.”

As well as being by elite but fertility-challenged sire Extreme Choice, Paradoxium is the first foal out of Paredo, a stakes-placed Better Than Ready mare from the family of The Galaxy winner and soon-to-be Yulong sire Private Harry.

By the same sire as Slipper winner Stay Inside, Blue Diamond winner Devil Night, Group 2-winning sire Tiger Of Malay and another two-year-old in Hidrix, Paradoxium was bred by Silverdale Farm’s Steve Grant, his racing partner Ken Lowe and the now Coolmore-based industry figure Brian McGuire.

Being associated with a talented colt with huge stud appeal is not an unfamiliar scenario for Clarke.

He also managed the deal on behalf of the owners of Magic Millions 2YO Classic winner Storm Boy to be sold to Coolmore for more than $22 million prior to the Justify colt’s autumn two-year-old campaign.

Storm Boy, who was trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott to run third in the 2024 Golden Slipper behind Lady Of Camelot and Coleman, was Australia’s equal most popular sire last year covering 227 mares.

The similarities don’t end there, with the Cunningham family’s navy and gold sash silks worn by Storm Boy as well as Paradoxium and his potential Slipper rival Warwoven.

“After winning the Todman, we know that he’s got a future as a stallion, sort of regardless of the outcome of Saturday week, as he’s obviously very well bred,” Clarke said. 

“He’s by a champion sire. He’s got a very fast and commercial pedigree. But also it’s sort of well documented about the setback that he had over the summer and the job that Björn and (veterinarian) Allan Frogley have done to get him there has been remarkable so far.

“Based on what we’ve seen and what we know and Björn’s feedback, I think he’s going to be ready to peak on Saturday week.”

Sword Of State colt Warwoven, whose Magic Millions preparation also went awry, is set to run in Saturday’s Pago Pago Stakes in a bid to clinch a berth in the Slipper as will the Chris Waller-trained Central Europe, a Frankel colt raced by the Coolmore syndicate.

The Todman’s honour roll features a long line of colts who have retired to stud with last year’s winner Tentyris, a subsequent Group 1 winner, to join the Darley stallion roster in the next year or two.

Switzerland won the Todman in 2024, Cylinder claimed the major colts and geldings Slipper lead-up in 2023 while Sejardan, Anamoe, Farnan and Yes Yes Yes won the Todman in the preceding four years.

Past Todman winners also include Vancouver, Criterion, Pierro, Written Tycoon, Exceed And Excel, Charge Forward and Marauding.

Coolmore acquired equity in Aylmerton and Yes Yes Yes after their Todman Stakes wins and before the Slipper, but a deal on this year’s winner seems remote.

“I don’t think the stallion market has softened at all, but maybe the process and method in which farms access horses evolves all the time,” Clarke said. 

“I’m hopeful either Paradoxium or Warwoven can get their Saturday week and perform as well as we hope and then there’ll be a big win for the ownership group.”