Two-speed market – Big bookies feast on multi upsets as pro punters find an edge

If proof was needed about the advantages of scale when it came to running an Australian corporate bookmaker, the year to date just might be it.

Results at Randwick last Saturday, headed by Autumn Glow being beaten in the Queen Elizabeth and Changingoftheguard scoring at 50-1 in the Sydney Cup, continued a profitable autumn for the bookies as high-profile horses have underperformed for the punters.

Wagering giant Entain, which operates the Ladbrokes and Neds brands in Australia, reported that last weekend’s set of race results was the company’s “highest margin Saturday since at least 2020”. 

Illustrating further the profitability of the main day of racing for bookmakers last weekend was that even if “multi anchor” Autumn Glow had stretched her unbeaten winning sequence to 12 Entain would have still finished in front. 

Data provided to The Straight by Entain shows net margins across racing and sports rose significantly in the period from February 9 to April 12 when compared to the spring racing window between October 1 and November 30 last year.

While all product categories recorded improvement, the most pronounced gains came through racing and sports multis, reflecting what Entain says is a broader industry shift towards the higher-yield betting options.

“When you look at a few of the big Group 1s that have happened across Melbourne and Sydney (this year), the Tentyrises, your Jimmysstars, your Autumn Glows, they just haven’t been winning as consistently as they were during the spring, particularly the back half of the spring,” Entain Australia and New Zealand’s Executive Director – Commercial & Industry, said.

In the heart of the AFL and NRL finals last year – the weekend when the Broncos staged a stunning come-from-behind win against the Canberra Raiders in the rugby league – bookmakers experienced multi mayhem.

The Straight reported at the time that for larger corporate bookmakers it was their heaviest losing weekend in history with a series of results across various sporting codes including the NBA siding with the punters. 

But Essendon defeating Melbourne in AFL’s Gather round on Saturday continued the trend for bookmaker-friendly sporting results this year, with Entain reporting that the AFL and NRL betting ledgers had been on its side so far in 2026.

The favourable racing results for bookmakers this autumn, and none more so than on day two of The Championships, come as renowned professional punters are plundering the betting markets.

Smaller operators are wearing the barrage from the lethal professional punters without the protection of a large customer base to lessen the risk that the major bookmakers enjoy through the size of their businesses. 

Several online bookies have told The Straight that one prominent tricode professional punter, a proven long-term winner, has been striking at an even higher success rate than what’s considered to be their long-term normal winning percentage.

One small corporate bookmaker said the professional punter had been achieving a profit on turnover of about 35 per cent on thoroughbred races for the past three months.

“When your betbacks are your best result, you know it’s not a good place to be for a (small) bookmaker,” they said.

Another bookie acknowledged the punter’s success, but added “there’s one better”.

“The other bloke manages to do it with twice as many bets,” he said.

It’s unclear whether the syndicate punters have identified and are exploiting new edges or whether there are more mistakes in the early fixed odds markets than had been posted previously. 

Speaking broadly about the professional punters’ influence on the market, Hannan said: “I think that would be a fair assumption that these professional model-based punters are performing well of late. Certainly, margin wise, they’re going well.”

Complying with the minimum bet limits and taking on those syndicate-style punters was part of the game, one bookie said when asked about their impact on the profit and loss sheets.

“It’s not ideal, but none of us do any form anymore,” they said.

“We let these guys frame the market for us now. Before, it was the big guys, Bet365 particularly, they always had a form team; TAB had a form team. Now, I think they just throw prices to the wall. 

“There was an example (last week) where I think one went up $2.10 and (the first punter) took $2.10, then the other bloke took $1.70. 

“It jumped $1.40 and went straight to the line (to win). In the old days, if the big punters missed the $2.10, they wouldn’t come in at the $1.70, but these guys have got such faith in their pricing (that they continue to bet).

“I know a lot of the small bookies whinge and moan about it, but you’ve got to take the good with the bad.”